Valerie Chaplin : What is your opinion on the Government’s Illegal Migration Bill, sending people to Rwanda, or housing Asylum seekers in barges?

Where do I start… I want to stress that I fundamentally oppose the Government’s Illegal Migration Act. In my opinion, making people criminals for coming to the UK through unauthorised routes and deporting them to Rwanda—or Ascension Island—with no future right to claim asylum in the UK is part of a wider agenda to undermine the ECHR and UN Refugee Convention. Housing them in disease-ridden accommodation is no way to treat other humans. I see this legislation as the culmination of the UK’s Hostile Environment brought in first under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition and Home Office Policy that has increasingly sought to demonstrate that they can pick and choose who comes to the UK and on what terms. Since the New Plan for Migration, anti-asylum rhetoric and related legislation have become a bedrock of the Government’s ambitions to demonstrate that they have ‘taken back control’ of the UK’s borders after Brexit. But with devastating consequences for the lives of those fleeing for their lives from conflict and persecution.

A cheeky plug, My colleague Nando Sigona and I discussed some of this in the latest episode of our podcast Who do we think we are? You can listen here.

Debbie Williams : What do you think about the Withdrawal Agreement? Strengths and weaknesses?

I’m going to focus here on the Withdrawal Agreement and Citizens’ Rights. Very simply, at least it managed to secure the residential rights of British citizens in the EU/EEA and EU/EEA nationals in the UK. I think that being circumscribed around this issue was a problem—which I know that a lot of you are dealing with. Leaving the issues of onward free movement and cross-border workers to the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) prolonged uncertainty among those whose lives relied on this, and often with significant consequences for their ability to continue their lives as before. So much more I can say, but have run out of space… I am sure that you all have your opinions about what could have been done differently.

Clarissa Killwick : How important is it to change the perception of Britons abroad, (both in the eyes of the public and government), is it achievable, and if so, how?

It’s really important because misconceptions matter. Working on the issue of what Brexit meant for British citizens living in the EU, I came face-to-face with this all the time—whether trying to get the attention of journalists, government officials, and other academics. At times, advocating for your rights it felt like talking to a closed door because they had already decided who you were. But I kept on trying to debunk these misconceptions.

There will be no immediate change in perception, but it is important to challenge these. When it comes to providing case studies to journalists or politicians, make sure it is not who they would expect (in terms of age, race, employment etc.). If you are in one-to-one conversation, you can ask people whether they have friends or family members who have emigrated from the UK, and more often than not they will (the British population abroad is equal to 10% of the resident population of the UK after all).

Michael Soffe : How do we even start to change the mindset of so many British people that migration is a good and necessary thing for the UK when we have such a hostile UK press?

I think that it is important to register that there is a difference between the politicisation of the migration in the UK press, and what the general public think. Sometimes I think that the rhetoric is pumped up to try and solicit support for the Government’s agenda precisely because they do not have the consensus of the general public. However, that is not to say that we should be complacent. We should start close to home and think about how we talk about migration. I take my inspiration from Migrant Rights Network and their Words Matter Campaign.

Lisa Burton : Do you believe significant numbers of undocumented British are currently in Europe?

I am really concerned about this, and I have been warning about people falling between the gaps and the long tail of Brexit. In short, there are certainly undocumented British citizens living in the EU/EEA. I would not be able to hazard a guess at how many, but I would rather turn attention to the implications of this for their lives. As these are human lives, any number is significant. And the question is whether enough has been done to reach them.

In the short term, and depending on where they live, it might have no consequences. Being undocumented—and thus without a legal status in your country of residence—is a highly precarious position to be in, and it will undoubtedly have consequences in the future in terms of their access of services and healthcare, accessing rights and entitlements. And I also want to highlight that this might be through no fault of their own. There will be those who were not in a position to advocate for themselves during the implementation period—children in care, those in ill health and incapacitated—and others who for whatever reason were not aware that they had to do anything to secure their rights. These are just the headlines of what the implications may be and who might be impacted.

Molly Williams : What have you learnt about the British diaspora? The biggest surprises and inaccuracies?

I have been conducting research into British emigration for the past twenty years, and what has surprised me the most has been how little this is discussed. On both sides of my family, people have emigrated from the UK—I have family on four continents. I even emigrated myself as a child. So, I have always known that people left, and that they maintained relationships with their friends and families back in the UK. The per capita rate of emigration from the UK makes it one of the highest in the world, with the result that most people could probably name someone they knew who had emigrated. But it is not a topic of public or political discussion (although it is coming back onto the political agenda a bit because of fears of brain-drain within the Health and Social Care Sector). Importantly, until the mid-twentieth century, emigration was Britain’s migration story. What changed? Stay tuned to find out more … seriously, I am just working through this in my research.

Matt Burton : Is there now enough data to show changes in migratory patterns of British citizens emigrating to the EU pre-Brexit, when we had Freedom of Movement, and post-Brexit without?

Not yet! We know that people are still leaving—the latest stats show an estimated 92,000 British citizens left the UK in the year ending December 2022. Importantly, and linked to question about surprises, the UK does not actually keep records of everyone leaving the country. Nor do they have a way to do this. But back to the question, it will take a while to accumulate enough data to get patterns about where people are going. But I think a more important question will be about whether there are shifts in the demographics of who is emigrating in respect to level of education, occupation, age, and income etc. and how that maps onto destinations around the world given differences in domestic immigration controls.

Next month – Dominic Grieve KC

Dominic Grieve KC is one of the Tory rebels stripped of the whip by Boris Johnson in 2019 for refusing to back a no-deal Brexit. The MP for Beaconsfield from 1997 to 2019, he served as attorney general from 2010 to 2014 and chaired Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee for four years. He is a visiting professor in Law, Politics and Human Rights at Goldsmiths, London University. His work in Parliament on civil liberties and the Rule of Law was recognised by two awards – Parliamentarian of the Year in 2005 and in 2014 by a Lifetime Achievement award from Liberty. On 30 June this year European Movement UK announced his appointment as Vice President.

In our occasional “Bremainers Ask Revisited” feature, we ask former contributors to comment on the current state of play, and Brexit in particular.

This time we asked Marina Purkiss (Jeremy Kyle Show/Bylines/Trawl Podcast), Professor Anand Menon (Director, UK in a Changing Europe) and Peter Corr (National Rejoin March) to comment on the first six months of 2023 and what might happen next.

Marina Purkiss

The first half of 2023 has been surprisingly worse than I expected. It feels like we’re in a position now where the Conservatives can see from the polls that there is no appetite for them anymore. People no longer want a Conservative government. They’ve had enough and they want change.

As a result of that, certainly in this first half of the year and, scarily, probably into the second half (and until they’re out of power), I think that what we are now seeing is a smash and grab; a raid on the public purse. There is no care, no consideration. They are breaking convention, they are breaching rules of conduct, they are not correcting Hansard. They are chucking out contracts left, right and centre, and any prospect of Sunak being the champion of integrity and professionalism and accountability that he promised he would be has gone out of the window. It’s dire.

In terms of the Brexit effect, I think the one promising thing is that polls show that there is no longer an appetite for Brexit. Even Leave voters are seeing the error of their ways. In fact, the latest YouGov poll released this week (i.e. the Government’s own polling) shows that if another referendum were held tomorrow, a majority of people (55%) would vote to Rejoin. So that’s one glimmer of hope.

The sad thing is that not one of the main opposition parties feel they can openly campaign to rejoin. In fact, we’re in the crazy situation where we have got Tories talking about it more than Labour are. Labour have chosen to adopt this make Brexit work stance. It’s frustrating as hell, but I get it. Consider that despite Labour being so absolute, so final in their language and saying they will not rejoin – and yes still the Tories and their right-wing shills are telling all and sundry that Keir Starmer will take us back into the EU. So I understand why Starmer is having to play it this way – otherwise the next election becomes a de facto referendum on rejoining the EU. But nevertheless, it’s a sad indictment on the state of our politics and the press in this country.

However, it is very frustrating that the people who are now starting to talk about Rejoining, or the even the problems of Brexit, seems to be more in the Tory camp. Tobias Elwood has actually come out and talked openly about it. Even the former austerity Chancellor, George Osborne, has talked about the error that this country made in leaving the European Union and the problems that it caused. It was reported just today that Brexit is like a slow puncture for the UK. Don’t we know it…

Rishi Sunak meanwhile, has not stopped bleating on about those five pledges, the key one being to bring down inflation. Yet, what really, really gets to me, and I’m sure many of your readers, is that he talks about how he will do everything within his power to tackle inflationary pressures. And yet the one thing that is in their power, that really does impact inflation, is Brexit. And they will not talk about it, and they will not recognise or acknowledge the impact this is having and will continue to have on our inflation. Add to that, how we are sleepwalking into further inflation-fuelled misery because, as of the autumn, full Brexit checks are due to come into play. Yes, folks, we haven’t even had full Brexit yet! We’ve not even enjoyed the full benefits of unleashing the opportunities of Brexit! These forthcoming Brexit checks are the ones that, if you recall, Jacob Rees-Mogg referred to as an act of self-harm. Yep, those checks. And there is wide speculation and fear that this will only drive food inflation in one direction, upwards.

So how are things looking? Pretty grim. But the things that are looking good are the polls: polls to rejoin the EU, and polls showing that the Tories are hopefully going to get obliterated at the next election. There’s a long way to go, and even if Labour or a coalition government do get into power, we can’t guarantee that they’re going to change their stance and bow to pressures from the public to rejoin. But, very slowly, as a result of the increasing damage, we are starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel. I just hope we emerge from that tunnel sooner rather than later.

Read Marina’s earlier contribution to Bremainers Ask (November 2022)

Professor Anand Menon

The year Brexit was betrayed. Or, for those of the opposite persuasion, the year Brexit was definitively shown to have failed. As so often, the debate has been dominated by the extremes. And as so often, reality is somewhat different. It may transpire that 2023 was the year we learned – grudgingly – to live with Brexit.

For zealots on the Leave side, betrayal has come in several stages. The Windsor Framework left Northern Ireland marooned, subject to EU laws. Kemi Badenoch’s watered-down EU retained law bill promised the scrapping of only a fifth of the EU laws originally destined for Rishi Sunak’s shredder. By May, Nigel Farage himself was on our telly screens declaring that Brexit had ‘failed’.

So, what does all this mean? In truth, not much. For all the noises off as Ministers compromised with reality – finding a modus vivendi with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol and avoiding the regulatory chaos that would have accompanied a wholescale scrapping of EU law – the Government was simply finding ways to, as the saying goes, ‘make Brexit work’. And the pushback was notable for its tameness. The days when the ERG tail could wag the Tory dog are, it seems, over.

All the while, Remainers have felt emboldened by a raft of economic data  – on growth, on trade, and on investment – suggesting that Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK economy. They have become increasingly strident in their criticism of the decision to leave the EU (and increasingly prone to irrationally blame Brexit for everything that is going wrong).

And Remainers have been able to point to opinion polls showing a larger proportion than ever of the British public now believe that to have been the ‘wrong decision’.

However, prospects for a reconsideration of Brexit, seem remote at best. For one thing, there is simply no political appetite for it. Labour have ruled out rejoining the single market or customs union, proposing what amount to potentially helpful but largely cosmetic changes to current trading arrangements (though there is no guarantee the EU will be willing to grant these). As far as Keir Starmer is concerned, as long as the Liberal Democrats do not adopt a more aggressively anti-Brexit stance, there will be little political cost to this position.

As for the public, while increasing numbers of people feel Brexit has not been a success, we should be careful not to read too much into this.

Unhappiness with Brexit is not the same as a desire to relitigate it. We have seen the issue drop steadily down the IPSOS issues tracker over time – last month only 9% of the public felt Brexit was the most important issue confronting the country. As my colleague Sophie Stowers has pointed out, when asked about re-opening the Brexit question, a large portion of the population (44%) consider the issue of EU membership to be settled. This could, as she says, ‘suggest that the popularity of ‘rejoin’ in a hypothetical referendum should not be interpreted as support for another vote’.

Furthermore, many of the Leavers who think the economic implications have been negative believe this is because politicians have implemented Brexit badly, not because it could not have been done well.

And finally, to perhaps the greatest unknown. What happens when the economy picks up? If, as seems to be the case, people are now blaming Brexit for economic outcomes that are clearly not the result of our leaving the EU, would an economic upturn lead to Brexit being credited for positive outcomes on which it has had equally little impact? How stable, in other words, is the current dissatisfaction?

The answer to this is we simply don’t know. But there is nothing inevitable about a steady rise in dissatisfaction with Brexit, let alone in political pressure for a change of course.

And so here we are. Grumpy, and generally quite dissatisfied with Brexit. But not really prepared to go over all that again. This might just be the new normal.

Read Professor Menon’s earlier contribution to Bremainers Ask (April 2023)

Peter Corr

The highs and lows of the last six months? Well, there are no highs, are there? So that’s that part covered. Pessimistic? No, just the truth. And I don’t believe anybody thinks otherwise, no matter what party you support, whether on the left or the right.

Maybe the polling will give some hope, if you want to see the destruction of the Conservative Party, and the Labour Party sweep into power. Though we’re still possibly a way off from an election and only a couple of years ago, pundits were saying Labour were gone for a decade because of the defeat they suffered in 2019. I think those people may be being very optimistic if they think the Conservative Party, who will say and do anything for power, couldn’t achieve the same turnaround in 18 months.

Inflation and the cost-of-living crisis is the biggest issue affecting most normal people’s lives. It is the cost of everything, from the clothes you wear, to the food you eat. There are, of course, world factors outside British politics causing this. But the big elephant in the room that is Brexit is also adding to it, making inflation worse than it would have been if we were still in the EU. Depending on which economist you listen to, Brexit is responsible for 40-80% of UK inflation.

It started at 10.5% in January and stayed stubbornly up there until May when it came down slightly to 8.7%. Sunak’s pledge to “halve inflation” by the end of the year is looking pretty unlikely, I would say, even though we all know if it’s achieved it’ll actually have nothing to do with him. Besides, I don’t know about you, but when I’m buying something, inflation is way above the official figures stated and certainly doesn’t seem to be coming down. Our weekly shop is nearly 40% higher than a year ago!

While this is happening, the Government and Bank of England are arguing the toss about what to do about it, seemingly settling on just making it even harder by putting up interest rates, meaning higher mortgage costs and in turn higher rent costs for people living in private rented housing. That’s around 82% of houses in the UK affected. This, to me, screams out that we need a huge building effort of social housing in this country to try and counter this upcoming crisis. Though there isn’t any party currently even thinking about this, as far as I can see.

Sunak is trying to get everyone to ignore the Brexit elephant though and concentrate on other reasons for the inflation, such as the industrial action the country has seen this year already. Striking over pay, conditions and rights, everyone has been on strike in the first six months. Amazon warehouse workers, firefighters, teachers, civil servants, border force workers, university lecturers, security guards, train drivers, ambulance workers, nurses, junior doctors, tube drivers, train station workers – there aren’t many industries that haven’t seen industrial action this year! But despite all this, the Government just uses these hard-working people as political pawns in their game of divide and rule.

Another thing he’s getting us to look at, instead of the Brexit elephant, is the sad and needless war in Ukraine. We’ve seen two visits to the UK by Volodymyr Zelenskyy this year already, showing the country what a real politician looks and sounds like, one who actually stands up for his people and country, rather than doing everything he can to wreck it. I am quite proud that our country is helping Ukraine against the tyrant Putin, though. 140,000 Ukrainian refugees have found refuge in the country, and that’s the Britain I fought for whilst serving.

I didn’t serve for a country, however, who would turn away people fleeing their own countries for various distressing reasons. The whole culture war, culminating in this ‘Stop The Boats’ rhetoric, taken up by both main parties now, sickens me. Imagine being so distressed in your own country that you risk your life and your family’s lives travelling the world with the aim of coming to a UK that speaks a language you understand, or where you might have a long-lost brother, only to be treated like a criminal when you get there – then packed away on a plane to a ‘safe’ country like Rwanda where you know other refugees were shot while demonstrating against conditions there. I don’t believe anyone but the nastiest of people are truly happy that we’re doing that to these people.

And I’ve not even really talked about the political scandals within our Vote Leave Government, have I? From Andrew Bridgen being expelled from the party for comparing COVID vaccines to the holocaust, Nadhim Zahawi being sacked over his tax affairs, Lee Anderson declaring his support for capital punishment (I assume, for anyone who criticises the Conservative Party), Robert Jenrick and Braverman getting into trouble over speeding offences, Dominic Raab resigning for being a bully, Richard Sharp resigning as BBC Chair after being found to have secured Johnson a loan just before he was chosen, Johnson himself resigning as an MP after being found to have lied multiple times to Parliament and the country (who’d have thought it), Nadine Dorries announcing she’s resigning, then not resigning, Daniel Korski withdrawing from being Tory candidate for London Mayor after accusations of groping: barely a week has gone by in the first six months of 2023 without another Tory scandal emerging! The party really are a car crash at the moment, perfectly summed up by that guy who crashed his car directly into the gates of Parliament last month.

I’ll finish by correcting my initial thought – I’ve thought of a positive thing to come out of British politics this year. It was Sunak coming out in support of the Rejoin EU campaign, when he declared to Northern Ireland, who celebrated the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement in April, that, and I swear to God I quote, ahem… “You are the world’s most exciting economic zone – in a unique position of having access to the UK market and EU single market. Nobody else has that. No-one”. As you can imagine, the country as a whole did a huge collective facepalm. I look forward to the next six months in British politics. Not.

Read Peter’s earlier contribution to Bremainers Ask (October 2022), and his great article in the New European (18 July).

Next month – Professor Michaela Benson

Michaela is a sociologist with expertise in migration, citizenship and identity. She is particularly known for her research on lifestyle migration, the middle classes, and Britain’s relationship to its emigrants and overseas citizens at moments of major political transformation, including Brexit. Her research projects include Brexit and British citizens in the EU and Rebordering Britain and Britons after Brexit (MIGZEN).

If you wish to submit a question to Michaela, please email it to enquiries@bremaininspain.com by Tuesday 8 August.