Bremainers Ask ….. Election Special

 Nick Harvey – CEO European Movement UK

Pro-Europeans can view the election of the new Parliament and Government through either a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty prism. I prefer the former.

Yes, we would all have preferred Labour not to be elected with red lines drawn against the customs union, single market or ‘rejoin’ – though experts tell me those would barely have been feasible in the first term anyway.

 But we have seen the new PM totally reset the relationship with Europe at the Blenheim summit, the new Foreign Secretary start talks about an ambitious UK-EU security agreement, and the first King’s Speech signal an enabling bill to allow ‘dynamic alignment’ with evolving EU regulations.

It is a great start.

Beyond these, EMUK has a shopping list of things the new British Government could do in the next few years to rebuild relations with the EU – some unilaterally, some by negotiation, some by improving the 2020 deal – but none breaking their self-imposed red lines.

High priority is a veterinary/food deal, along with dropping Tory ideological objections to the ECJ and playing divide-and-rule between EU states. Revisiting citizens’ rights would help – easier access to UK universities and for agricultural workers, a youth mobility scheme and performers’ visas. Co-operation is needed on energy, crime and justice, medicines supply and critical raw materials. We should join the Pan-European Mediterranean Convention.

We also need greater regulatory alignment and to avoid divergence by mirroring VAT and carbon border adjustment mechanisms, and keeping up with EU rules on pharmaceuticals, chemicals, pollution, and emissions. Rejoining EU agencies like Euratom, Erasmus+, the Environment Agency, and the Medicines Agency’s ‘open partners’ scheme would help. And a huge prize would be regulatory equivalence in financial services and mutual recognition of professional qualifications.

There is plenty to keep them busy – and if we make substantial progress on these sorts of things, the entire relationship will get to a very different place. Each time the British public sees its government sit down with our EU neighbours and resolve an issue though a mutually-beneficial solution – and proudly proclaim the outcome – we will gradually detoxify and normalise discourse about the European issue.

If that happens, then by the end of this Parliament we could be in a very different place in terms of what manifestos might say in 2029, and what possibilities could open up in the second term.

Of course, we are all itching to go faster. But the country is not. The wounds from 2016-2019 are deep, and collective PTSD endures. Labour and Lib Dems knew this and judged their 2024 pitch deftly.

The mistake now would be to cut and run for ‘rejoin’ too soon. Our step-by-step approach must continue, and with a new Government will gain momentum. How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time…

 Gina Miller – True & Fair Party Leader

With the Labour Party celebrating its decisive win at the general election, the new Government has hit the ground running, fulfilling their promise to act from Day One. However, policy announcements so far lack the depth and details needed to repair the damage inflicted by the Tories over the past 14 years.

One crucial issue the Labour government must address is Brexit, which was never about our country’s needs but rather the infighting within the Conservative Party. With the election behind us, it’s time to confront Brexit head-on. Brexit has robbed us of more than political alliances; it has disrupted our connection with our European neighbours. Remember spontaneous weekends in Paris, ease of importing and exporting, especially for SME businesses, or studying in Germany or Italy? These weren’t just luxuries for the wealthy, but tangible ways ordinary Brits worked, lived, loved and made us feel part of a vibrant community.

Keir Starmer’s recent speech detailed his aims to tackle the UK’s skills gap, proposing plans to boost the economy, reduce immigration, and achieve greater social mobility. However, addressing skills gaps created by Tory policies while linking this to significantly lower immigration is both unrealistic and misleading in the medium term. Reducing our reliance on overseas workers will take time. Currently, many UK sectors require a transitional workforce to function.

Our NHS, struggling with a shortage of nurses and healthcare workers, sees 47% of its staff considering leaving. Dental care faces similar shortages, with plans to increase training places by 40% not coming to fruition until 2031-32. In the interim, how will these gaps be filled? Starmer rightly spoke about reforming education, but great education requires great educators. His focus on modernising the curriculum for the digital age is vital, yet we face serious shortages in core subjects like physics, maths, geography, and modern foreign languages.

Social services vacancies undermine efforts to aid the 4.3 million children living in poverty in the UK, and there is a need for more youth mental health services staff. The construction industry, essential for infrastructure projects and housing plans, struggles with a shortage of skilled tradespeople. The agriculture and food sector, as well as hospitality, face similar workforce crises, affecting service quality and business operations. Brexit has devastated workforces and productivity across almost every sector. The reality is that we need comparatively high levels of immigration in the short to medium term, and Europe provides a nearby, culturally aligned source.

Klaus Welle, former secretary-general of the European Parliament, indicated that Brussels would welcome an “honest attempt” by the UK to reset the relationship. This is what Starmer must do at the upcoming UK-EU Summit, and propose:

• A UK-EU defence and security pact.
• Easing trade tensions in agriculture and pharmaceuticals.
• A 5-year Visa Scheme for sector-based freedom of movement for workers.
• Rejoining data-sharing agencies.
• Re-entering the Erasmus scheme for students.
• Greater collaboration in the energy sector.
• Linking the British carbon emission trading scheme to the EU’s new Carbon Border Adjustment.
• Harmonizing AI and digital sector regulations.
• Re-establishing full UK access to the EU’s Eurodac system to monitor and return migrants.

The EU might be tough, claiming a lack of capacity to negotiate, but the UK is important to the EU’s unity.  In his first 100 days, Starmer’s government should clearly outline the benefits of free movement of labour, services, and capital between the UK and Europe.  A bold strategy to exit Brexit will allow Starmer and Reeves to take back control of the economy.

The pandemic has masked the full extent of Brexit’s damage, but all indices show Brexit is a major factor in the UK economy shrinking since 2016. An eight-year strategy to repair the damage would help in regaining our status of “Great” Britain.

As we enter the 2030s, a decade predicted to be one of accelerated change, Starmer’s leadership will be crucial in fostering unity with Europe against geopolitical instability and the climate crisis. This period calls for courage and vision to support the idea of a “European family” of justice, mercy, and freedom, once envisioned by a bold UK Prime Minister. Such a unified approach is vital for regaining the simple joys and hopes that make life worth living, for the Brits and Europeans alike.

 Professor Anand Menon 

Brexit barely figured in the recent general election campaign. On one level, this is easy to explain. The electorate are no longer that concerned about relations with the European Union – the issue does not figure among the top ten issues for the British public. On the other hand, there is something of a paradox. A Labour Party that prioritized growth above all else simply refused to countenance the kinds of closer relations with the EU (notably single market membership) that might actually have a significant economic effect.

 Looking forward, what we can expect, I think is twofold. First, a distinct warming in the tone of the relationship. This has been apparent already in the dealings the new Government has had with its European partners. At the same time, however, there will be real limits to any substantive progress in altering the nature of the UK-EU relationship. 

Certainly, both sides are anxious to secure a security deal of some kind. Early indications, however, suggest the UK will struggle to convince the EU either to define ‘security’ as broadly as London would like (to include issues like supply chain security, climate security and even migration) or to allow UK access to EU schemes intended to bolster cooperative defence-related R&D projects. 

When it comes to the economic relationship, the new Government’s demands are, on the one hand quite limited – a veterinary agreement, mutual recognition of professional qualifications, and measures to help touring musicians ply their trade. On the other, in all these cases, agreement might not be as easy to achieve as some seem to assume. In each, not only will negotiations take time, but there are legitimate questions about whether the EU will have an interest in a deal (veterinary agreement) or whether what the UK is asking for is extremely complicated and hard to achieve given current EU rules (touring musicians).

In sum, the Labour government will ensure that the UK-EU relationship is no longer seen in competitive zero-sum terms in the way it was under Boris Johnson. The tone already is improving. However, substantive progress will be hard to achieve, and, on the economic side, nothing the UK has suggested will make a real difference in terms of growth. Readers might disagree about whether this constitutes a way of ‘making Brexit work.’ But it does point to the fact that, even under a relatively pro-European Government at the head of a  huge majority, the fundamentals of Brexit are not about to be questioned. 

 Professor Chris Grey

Britain’s new Labour government has already made rapid progress in improving the tone of the UK-EU relationship. That matters in itself, given what has happened since 2016, but it can also be expected to yield substantive improvements. These won’t take the form of a single ‘new Brexit deal’, but could occur in various areas, within various timescales, and through various forums. The kinds of things we can expect include a wide-ranging security and defence pact, and a veterinary agreement.

 I think there is no prospect of the Government changing its pre-election ‘red lines’ on rejoining the EU or the single market, or creating a customs union treaty. Doing so would immediately throw the entire administration into instability, and politics into chaos. However, it seems likely that the Tory red line of refusing any arrangement which involves a role for the ECJ is now dead. If so, that opens multiple possibilities for cooperation, and participation in EU programmes.

It’s sometimes suggested that Labour’s plans are based on ‘cherry picking’, and as such will be rejected by the EU. But this isn’t true. Much of what they intend was pre-figured in the Political Declaration which accompanied the Withdrawal Agreement, only to be ditched by Boris Johnson. Other things, like a veterinary agreement, have in principle been offered by the EU in the past. 

So, there are genuine, if relatively small, improvements which can and should be agreed and, crucially, the dynamics of domestic politics have totally changed. That is because all the pressure from within the governing party will be to push the front bench to go further, and get closer, to the EU. By contrast, even the tentative steps taken by Rishi Sunak, such as the Windsor Framework, met internal resistance.

There are also things the government can do without any EU agreement. These include maintaining regulatory alignment by limiting deliberate, ‘active’, divergence and by tracking changes in EU regulation to avoid ‘passive’ divergence. I very much hope that the government will also resolve the growing scandal of the operation of the Settled Status scheme for EU nationals in the UK, including by providing a paper document to demonstrate that status.

Almost as important as any improvements made to ‘Brexit 1.0’ is the fact that Keir Starmer has robustly rejected any possibility whatsoever of a ‘Brexit 2.0’ of derogation from the ECHR. This has now become an article of faith to many Brexiters in the Tory Party and elsewhere. 

Whether, under their next leader, the Tories formally adopt such a Brexit 2.0 policy remains to be seen. But, even if not, unless or until they recognize the folly of Brexit 1.0 there is little prospect of it being reversed, even if the UK tried. For until there is a durable cross-party consensus for reversal, the risks for the EU of yet another change of policy, under a future government, would be too great. In that sense, for now, Labour’s much less antagonistic and very slightly softened Brexit is the only game in town. 

 Liz Webster – Founder of Save British Farming

The General Election 2019 delivered a spectacular wipeout of most of the Brexit MPs who have dominated and Remainers have railed against for over eight years… but where is the jubilation?

This week in the Commons we were treated to a debate dominated by MPs who are asking the urgent and pertinent questions about Brexit which continues to blight Britain, the EU and the rest of the World. However, the only person who pointed this out was Nigel Farage, who claimed in his maiden speech as new MP for Clacton that he and his Brexit bandit chums are outnumbered in a remainer/rejoin parliament. This was missed by most, probably because we are exhausted and bored of Nigel droning on

The enormity of this win isn’t obvious to many, because Brexit was ignored in the election, it was the “Brexit elephant in the room” election. Brexit was only discussed on the sidelines and mostly by the foreign press, in astonishment at Britain’s Brexit-elephant-in-the-room election syndrome.

In many ways, there were parallels between the GE and the Labour leadership election after GE19. Starmer won by straddling both wings of the party, there was no jubilation following his victory, but he ruthlessly shaped the party to become a winning machine which has made historic gains, and now they hold significant power which can transform Britain.

I don’t know about you, but I feel many of us are suffering from Stockholm Syndrome, having been captives of the right-wing Brexiteers for over 8 years. In fairness our freedom was really won thanks to Keir Starmer meticulously keeping the receipts on Boris Johnson’s rule breaking in number 10. It really was removing the key populist that saved us, and consigned the Tories to the doldrums.

So having been so lost to anger, fear and anxiety since Gordon Brown lost in 2010, I am determined to enjoy some optimism. Some of it may prove to be misplaced, but I can’t allow my spirit to be lost to pessimism.

I decided to back Labour when they committed to negotiate a Veterinary Agreement with the EU. This always meant that the aims of Brexit to deregulate and a ensure a race to the bottom in standards was not supported by Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and was very much putting an anchor down to stop the Brexitanic achieving a disastrous USA FTA. And now Labour have gone further, laying out in the King’s Speech new laws which will make it easier for the UK to align with EU rules. The biggest danger of Brexit was always divergence, which to date has only happened when the EU diverged, as Britain became paralysed by disagreements about what Brexit means.

So now the Brexitanic is secured, and the Brexit pirates largely thrown overboard by a sensible majority of Labour MPs. Last week, the new DEFRA secretary, Steve Reed, confirmed they are committed to ditching the worst trade deals in history negotiated by the worst PMs in history, Johnson and Truss. This means the Brexitanic is sailing back to Southampton, she has sustained significant damage, but hasn’t sunk in the Atlantic and I, for one, am determined to help get her home. I’m not going to stop campaigning until we rejoin, but I now sense that rejoining the EU is inevitable.

 Lord Chris Rennard MBE

The Government agenda was clearly set in the King’s Speech. Its top priority is to drive economic growth, which is seen as essential to restoring public services. The campaign showed that no party wants to ask taxpayers to pay more during a cost-of-living crisis. But no party had the courage to say that low economic growth and the cost-of-living crisis are partly the result of Brexit.

 On immigration, the parties also swerved away from pointing out that the Brexiteers signed a deal without a returns policy or that ending freedom of movement within the EU has substantially increased levels of immigration, as people from further afield generally stay longer and also bring their families.

The election was an absolutely crushing defeat for those who brought about Brexit. The former constituencies of David Cameron, Theresa May, and Boris Johnson are now all held by the Liberal Democrats.  Liz Truss lost to Labour in the seat which she won with a 26,000 majority in 2019.  Many people will feel that they got their “comeuppance”, with polls showing that most people now think that Brexit was wrong.

But how can we begin to reverse it?  Incremental changes in the right direction are already being made.  But it will take greater courage and more time for Keir Starmer to use his advocacy skills to explain that aligning ourselves again with our neighbours is in the interests of our own economy.  He must also explain that this will be best done by us having a proper say in the rules, requiring membership of the Single Market.  Perhaps a 2029 Manifesto commitment?

Re-joining the EU will probably also require the adoption of Proportional Representation, which has had the support of the Labour Party members in recent years. I doubt if we could be re-admitted without ensuring that the U.K. would not adopt a “Hokey Cokey” approach to membership in future. Tony Blair’s biggest mistake after 1997 was not moving on electoral reform. This led directly to the Brexit referendum and what was later called the decade of chaos. Labour must be ready to move in their next Manifesto. These measures would attract widespread support and encourage co-operation with all the sensible opposition parties.