Bremainers Ask ……. Phil Moorhouse

Tracy Rolfe: Do you think the UK will eventually rejoin the EU? If so, when and how do you think it will happen?

Yes, unless the EU does actually collapse as the Daily Express is hoping, I think rejoining is inevitable. The vast majority of opposition to EU membership is loaded into older people and it’s not a view that becomes more prevalent as you get older, as some political issues do. This is part of a very specific generation of people. So, if nothing else, as time passes, the electorate becomes more pro-EU, the politicians personally linked with Brexit disappear from the scene, and the new leaders have no baggage, we will eventually see the benefits.

However, I’m not a fan of achieving political change through a patient game of waiting for millions of people to die off, so I’d rather we pressed the issue more quickly. Peter Mandelson recently said that he thought we might be getting ready to apply in about ten years. I certainly think that if Labour are to achieve their economic aims, then achieving more growth will have to include breaking down the most obvious trade barriers.

Valerie Chaplin : What do you think of Keir Starmer’s attitude towards Brexit and his slogan ‘Make Brexit Work’?

First of all, Keir Starmer was the most recognisable voice against Brexit as far as the public were concerned. He did not get kicked in the head by a horse when he became Labour leader. His change of position reflected the change in our EU status. Not that his real beliefs on EU membership matter, more what his Government will do.

The “Make Brexit Work” slogan is as meaningless as any other political slogan. It can simply mean that he is going to get our economy in shape outside the EU. But, of course, it will always be hampered by trade barriers as a result of being outside the SM and CU. What Starmer is trying to agree with the EU in practice actually represents the steps which would need to be taken if we rejoined at least the single market. As such, I see no difference between his policies and the policies of someone who was openly talking about joining the SM or EU proper. Of course, he might not achieve them, but we don’t qualify to join the SM or EU right now anyway.

Lisa Burton : What do you think of Boris Johnson’s comments in recent interviews regarding Brexit, particularly it ‘being an argument he wanted to win’ and his continuing blame game?

We know that the real reason Boris Johnson championed Brexit was for political power. He did not believe that he could become Conservative leader, and therefore Prime Minister, without the support of Tory MPs described by a former party chair as ‘swivel eyed loons.’ They wanted Brexit, so he thought that if he became the banner bearer for Brexit, he could win their support.

It’s believed that he did not expect the leave campaign to win, and so did not think he would actually have to deal with the consequences – simply benefit from the support of Brexiteers when David Cameron stepped down, which he was going to do during the second Parliament anyway.

It’s been clear throughout that Boris Johnson understands nothing about the EU, the single market, the customs union or even what a non-tariff barrier actually is. We’ve also seen that he simply does or says whatever he thinks he needs to do in order to deal with tricky problems in the short term with no thought for the long term. So, whatever Boris Johnson decides to say was his reasoning for getting behind Brexit, it was only ever a device to have the easiest possible path to becoming Prime Minister.

Michael Soffe : Earlier in the year you quoted Tory MP Paul Scully as saying a new referendum on Brexit would result in the vote being reversed. Do you believe there will be a further referendum and if so, presumably way down the road? How do we convince the public that we need one?

I believe that we will apply to rejoin the EU, and a referendum is the only credible way of doing that now. I would suggest that in order to maximise the chances of success, we actually have two referenda included in the legislation, as we should have done before. We know that issues like currency will be a big worry for people, but that it’s also possible to negotiate opt-outs, though we can’t expect everything we had before.

So, we should have one referendum which only gives the Government the authority to apply for membership, and then a second referendum, once the terms are agreed, which the public use to give final approval.

But, to persuade the public, we need them to realise that Brexit trade barriers are the cause of problems like getting NHS medicines and staff, food which is less fresh, higher costs of goods and some services. So, we need an official economic assessment of being outside the EU/SM/CU.

Mike Fitzgerald : If you were in a position of power, what would be your approach to a “reset with the EU”? And do you think a ‘reset’ can lay foundations for a future rejoin?

So, we have to be mindful of two things when it comes to closer moves to the EU. The first is that a significant number of key voters are still not convinced Brexit is bad, and the second is that the Conservatives will loudly proclaim that they will reverse any major alignment with the EU that Labour implements.

So, although I think my approach would be a bit different to Starmer’s, I don’t think it would be very far away. When EU policy experts criticise Labour’s moves it tends to be along the lines of being clear about what they want from the EU. We know Labour wants a veterinary deal, mutual recognition of qualifications and a deal that sounds very like freedom of movement for performers. But Labour haven’t been clear about the precise details, or what they think we can agree to give the EU in return.

So, I would say that I think what I would do in power is to have those detailed proposals worked out as a priority so that there was the basis for discussion. I would also have bitten their hand off at the prospect of re-joining Erasmus, because nobody wanted us to leave.

Lawrence Renaudon Smith : There is a lot of discussion about university students and Erasmus etc., but I hear very little about the effect Brexit is having on the attitudes and education of schoolchildren. Are they becoming more inward-looking and nativist due to Brexit? Gen Z are pro-EU membership, but are Gen Alpha going to see other Europeans as “the foreigners”? 

I’m not a sociologist, but I don’t think the next generation will be anti-EU. Anti-EU sentiment worked largely on people who were lied to on the basis that bad things in the country were blamed on the EU. This doesn’t work on a generation entering adulthood outside the EU. I would also say Brexit sentiment worked well on many older people because of classic nostalgia. You think things were better when you were young and ascribe it to society being better at the time. In reality, it’s because you were young, fit and healthy, and didn’t have to grunt every time you got out of a chair.

Again, this doesn’t really work on the youngest because their young, fit and healthy times are in the Brexit years. I gather the younger generation use the word Brexit to mean something that’s been cocked up. I think they’ll be pro-EU on balance.

Helen Johnston : Most recent surveys show that Labour Party members and voters believe Brexit was wrong for the country and would like to see more progress on the UK moving closer to Europe. Do you get the impression that the Labour leadership is listening to its grassroots at all, e.g. at the recent party conference?

So, Labour are listening to the grassroots, but we vote for them even when they’re losing. They have to listen more closely to key swing voters and, as a Labour member, I want them to do that. But people also misrepresent polls as well. A clear majority do believe Brexit was wrong, but that’s not the same as wanting a Government to say we will rejoin.

We know that more people would like to rejoin than stay out, but when you ask even if that means adopting the euro, all of a sudden, the answer goes the other way. The issue is also less salient for pro-EU voters than pro-Brexit voters. Finally, the moment we ask to join the SM or EU, the Conservatives will say they would scrap it when they come back to power. So, the EU will not waste its time when it has so many other priorities.

We will know when the public really wants back in the EU because the Conservatives will have to start talking about it seriously. There are currently zero Conservative MPs doing so. There was Tobias Elwood in the last Parliament, standing alone, but he’s gone now.

Fi Cooper : What do you think about the future of farming and fishing if Labour continues to refuse to join the CU and SM?

Fishing and farming both seem to have very different attitudes towards Brexit. If reports are to believed, there was overwhelming support for a hard Brexit from fishermen, who are now moaning that they have been screwed over, and yet they still insist that the hard Brexit is the right decision. I don’t know what you can do to help an industry that doesn’t understand that it was never going to get access to the EU market (where most British caught fish goes) whilst denying access to EU fishing vessels.

Farming is different, because many farmers did understand the damage that would be caused and, I think, welcome any moves that ease trade barriers, including rejoining. They will also be keen on the veterinary agreement, if the Government can arrange it.

There is also currently a risk that, without proper standards controls, which we still do not have, that we are at a higher than acceptable risk of importing a disease which could devastate whole sections of our farming industry.

But without help, there’s a worry they will have to scale back, meaning we are forced to import yet more food, or farm more intensively.