GB News circulates quasi-legal disclaimer following the recent riots

GB News circulates quasi-legal disclaimer following the recent riots

Aug 21, 2024 | Bylines, News

The fact that GB News has published this disclaimer suggests it is well aware it’s under the spotlight for the rioters’ recent behaviour, writes Bremain Chair Sue Wilson MBE for Yorkshire Bylines. 

It may have escaped your attention, but staff at GB ‘News’ are attempting to cover their backs with a quasi-legal disclaimer following the recent riots. Having been accused of incitement, the statement is being circulated on social media, aimed, presumably, at distancing themselves from any past or future blame. The disclaimer – considering the derision it has attracted – is unlikely to have been drafted by a lawyer. Perhaps, with Nigel Farage’s salary of seemingly over £3,000 per hour, expensive legal services are not within the realm of GB News budgets.

The disclaimer – not worth the paper it’s written on

The statement being shared by presenters Dan Wootton, Bev Turner and others reads as follows:

 

“None of the information posted or repeated on this account is known by its author to be false, nor intended to stir racial or any hatred of, nor cause psychological or physical harm to, any person or group of people (howsoever identified).”

Or, in other words, we’re not knowingly lying, nor intentionally inciting racial hatred or harm to anyone, so no harm, no foul, nothing to do with me guv, I just work here. Except that the disclaimer content is meaningless – and as many commentators have pointed out – totally ineffective as a legal strategy.

Author and commentator Edwin Hayward described the statement as the equivalent of driving a car with a large sticker on it saying, “whatever your speed gun reads, it was never my intention to break the limit, so you can’t prosecute me”. Criminal lawyer and author, The Secret Barrister, described the disclaimer as about as useful as a bank robber wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with “I am not dishonestly appropriating property belonging to another with the intention of permanently depriving the other of it”.

Who’s to blame for the riots?

While arguments continue about whether or not GB News is actually a news channel – especially in the eyes of broadcasting regulator Ofcom – the organisation itself describes itself on X as a “media and news company”. The fact that it has published the disclaimer suggests it is well aware of being under the spotlight, even if staff accept no responsibility for the behaviour of the rioters.

However, where they themselves might suggest they are blameless, the British public has other ideas. In a recent YouGov poll there was little support for the unrest, the majority saying it was “unjustified” – the instigators were the rioters themselves, social and mainstream media and organised far-right groups.

In polling conducted by Savanta, the finger of blame was more directly pointed, with 51% blaming Reform UK Limited, and its leader Farage in particular. EDL leader Tommy Robinson came a close second, with billionaire owner of X, Elon Musk, in third place.

Farage was particularly criticised for posting a video within hours of the killing of three young girls in Southport, suggesting that “the truth is being withheld from us”. Farage was later forced to admit that he had repeated false claims made on social media by controversial commentator Andrew Tate and others.

Farage himself has not, as yet, posted the disclaimer so favoured by his fellow GB News employees.

Dealing with the damage

Thanks largely to the swift action of the government, the police and the courts, those responsible for the violence, looting and incitement are being brought to justice, or soon will be. But these are not ordinary British citizens protesting over perceived, justifiable grievances – these are criminals, whipped up into a frenzy by those wishing only to cause trouble and division. Not just petty criminals either – around 70% of those recently convicted are career criminals with an average of 15 previous convictions each for weapons possession, violence, drugs and other serious offenses.

Whether it’s due to the threat of custodial sentences, or the presence of the overwhelming support demonstrated by the British public in defence of those being targeted, the thugs have gone quiet, at least for now. The hate and division that was fuelled by Brexit and the far-right has not gone away, but for now the threat of further riots seems to have dissipated.

 

Nothing will change until we defend immigration

Blaming immigrants for the ills of the nation is hardly a new concept, but it’s a dangerous weapon that’s been wielded by fascists and dictators for generations. It has proved a successful tool for stirring up hatred of foreigners amongst those feeling left behind and looking to apportion blame. While the current situation may not be the fault of the current government, it must take responsibility for what happens next.

Labour’s handling of the rioting was welcome, quick and effective, and their rhetoric condemning the behaviour of the rioters was the strongest we’ve heard to date. What is needed now is further strong language in defence of immigration, diversity, and multi-culturalism.

UK businesses have always understood the economic argument for immigration and, since Brexit, public attitudes are “increasingly positive” too – that’s according to the International Organisation for Migration. It’s high time that the new government plays catch-up. The rioters that caused so much damage – and those that egged them on – do not speak for the vast majority of the British public or represent what it means to be British in the 21st century.

In order to prevent a repeat performance of the recent civic upheaval, we must get tougher on the culprits by whatever means necessary. But until we start telling the truth about immigration – that it’s not only economically essential, but also life-affirming and culturally enriching – we are never going to move forward. The UK is, and always has been, a multi-cultural society. Let’s stop apologising for that and start celebrating that fact.

We are many, you are few

We are many, you are few

Aug 7, 2024 | Bylines, News

Multiculturalism and diversity are here to stay – we can defeat the thugs and racists, and those inciting hatred, because we are many, they are few, writes Bremain Chair Sue Wilson MBE for Yorkshire Bylines.

Wherever you look at the moment, you’ll find images of hatred and violence being directed at vulnerable people because of their skin colour or their religion, or both. That vitriol has been whipped up by far-right politicians and the media, for their own political ends, and shows no signs of stopping anytime soon.

Yet amidst all that hate there are stories of humanity, support and kindness – stories of ordinary people sticking together in the darkest of times, helping their local communities regardless of colour or creed. Because it’s the right thing to do.

Not in my name

From Southport to Bristol, Sunderland to Liverpool, and all across the country, the British public are standing up to the racist, rioting thugs. They are helping rebuild damaged property, forming human shields around mosques and providing support to those in need. They are saying, loudly and clearly, that the rioters do not speak for them, or for our once-proud nation. Where rioters’ behaviour has brought widespread shame and condemnation, the actions of good-hearted members of the public have brought renewed feelings of hope, cooperation and pride.

In Bristol, a crowd gathered to defend vulnerable asylum seekers from far-right thugs while chanting “we are many, you are few”. Other crowds in other towns, such as Hull, Hartlepool, Rotherham and Sunderland, have turned out in force to help clean up the mess left by the violent actions of rioters and looters. These selfless acts, in defence of local communities, are being conducted by groups as diverse as the communities they seek to protect. If the rioters were hoping to sow division, they have failed miserably. They may even have helped to strengthen local community bonds.

Individual acts of kindness

Apart from the actions of large or small groups of anti-racist protestors, there are many examples of individuals that have taken a stand or offered a helping hand. From the Reverend Sarah Jones in Cardiff, telling an assembled crowd that “peace and love” would ultimately “win this fight”. Or the Imam from Sunderland handing our burgers and chips to the anti-fascist protestors surrounding his mosque.

On social media too, damnation of terrorist behaviour and defence of multiculturalism has been widespread. One noted defender, who called in to the Shelagh Fogarty show on LBC, was 55-year-old “Darren from Reading”. Darren spoke of the need to “make adjustments” for others from different backgrounds, saying how different cultures, colours and music had “enriched” his life. The problems our country faces, he said, were nothing to do with immigration – despite what the likes of Nigel Farage and Richard Tice may claim.

Echoing the spirit of so many that have stood up to be counted over recent days Darren added, “if you live in my community, you are my people” – a sentiment that the rioters will never understand.

Financial support

One of the buildings that came under attack was Spellow Lane Library Hub in Liverpool, opened just last year as an essential space for the local community. A group of 300 rioters who were, said Merseyside Police, “intent on committing serious violence and disorder”, threw bricks and fireworks at police and the library. Many of the books were damaged and much of the ground floor was destroyed.

A fundraiser was immediately set up by 27-year-old Alex McCormick, with a modest target of £500. Within 48 hours, the Go Fund Me page had raised over £116,000 (and still rising) thanks to the generosity of over 6n000 people, including Nigella Lawson.

Multiculturalism works

What far-right extremists will never accept is that multiculturalism works. It’s not a new phenomenon – our cities, and our country, have benefitted from diversity for decades. Immigration is not a dirty word. It is the backbone of our NHS, our public sector, our industries, our culture. It has made us who we are, and we are all the richer for it.

Those that claim otherwise – whether they believe their own rhetoric or not – have their own divisive agenda. Their actions were ignored – or even encouraged – by former Tory governments. But our new prime minister is different. Condemnation has been swift, arrests are being made, and the guilty rioters will be punished. We can only hope that those inciting their actions will also soon feel the full force of the law, as indicated this morning by Stephen Parkinson, director of public prosecutions.

Images of new battles of hate and violence may continue – hopefully not for long – but the thugs cannot win this war. The new government won’t let them, the police won’t let them, but most importantly of all, the British public won’t let them.

If they try to divide us, we’ll link our arms together. If they come brandishing sticks and stones, we’ll be there with brooms and mops. If they taunt us with hate, we’ll be there with hope.

Whether far-right supporters accept it or not, multiculturalism and diversity are here to stay. We can defeat the thugs and racists, and the politicians and media that whip them up into a frenzy. Because we must. And because we are so much better than that.

We are the many, they are the few.

Tories: unfit for office, unfit for opposition

Tories: unfit for office, unfit for opposition

Jul 22, 2024 | Bylines, News

Based on the evidence so far, it seems the Tories are as unfit for opposition as they were for office – and they only have themselves to blame, writes Bremain Chair Sue Wilson MBE for Yorkshire Bylines. 

On 4 July, the Conservatives suffered their worst election defeat in history, with a loss of 250 seats. After 14 years in power, and with his party way behind in the polls, Rishi Sunak called a snap election. The resulting disastrous campaign did nothing to change the government’s fortunes or their standing with the British public. Their time was finally up.

For the beleaguered party, the best that could be hoped for was a rejection of far-right policies and that lessons might be learned. Recent behaviour in the Commons by certain shadow cabinet ministers would suggest that they haven’t learned a thing.

“Constructive opposition”

Last Friday, new appointees were added to the shadow cabinet by Sunak, bringing the total number of shadow cabinet ministers to 51, or 42% of the total number of Tory MPs. Such is the dearth of MPs and ministers that 10 of those new appointees are being tasked with two or three different roles.

If the British public had been expecting better parliamentary behaviour from the Tories in opposition than in government, then we had set our sights too high. While many shadow cabinets ministers are new to the role and could be forgiven for failing to understand parliamentary rules and customs, it is those more experienced members who are causing discord in Westminster.

The worst examples of recent bad behaviour were to be witnessed during a speech by Environment Secretary Steve Deed. Steve Barclay, the shadow environment secretary, was critical of Labour plans for on-shore wind farms. Barclay said that the government planned “to take vast amounts of farmland out of food production in order to prioritise the eco-zealotry”. During his response, Deed denied a number of interventions from front-benchers Barclay, Kemi Badenoch and Victoria Atkins. Badenoch and Atkins, did not take it well.

Abominable behaviour

While Badenoch may have had a dig at Reed during his speech, it was Victoria Atkins, shadow health secretary, that took bad behaviour to another level. Standing at the despatch box, she repeatedly spoke over the environment secretary, breaking the Rules of Order and Decorum in House of Commons Procedure and Practice. The rules state that when a member is addressing the house, “no other Member may interrupt except to raise a question of privilege which has arisen suddenly or to raise a point of order”.

The behaviour was widely criticised by MPs, and eventually, by the deputy speaker, Christopher Chope, who said Atkins had “behaved abominably”. A response later supplied by Atkin’s office said she was merely “trying to get answers”, as if the ends had justified the means.

Badenoch, bad enough

In the debate that followed the King’s speech Kemi Badenoch, shadow levelling up secretary, launched an attack on Deputy PM Angela Rayner from the despatch box. In a speech that has been described as “patronising”, “disgraceful” and “unprofessional”, Badenoch told Rayner that she had been “stitched up” and made a “fall guy” by the Labour government. She offered to “hold her hand” at this “very difficult time”, and said she looked forward to telling Rayner “I told you so” when the new government repeated the mistakes of the old one.

The recent behaviour of both Atkins and Badenoch – although hardly out of character – has fuelled speculation that, yet again, their focus is on their own political careers, rather than the needs of their constituents. The fact that they believe this kind of behaviour is going to improve their chances in the race for leadership of the party just proves once more how detached they both are from the wishes and needs of the British people.

Tories lacking leadership material

Despite the drop in electoral support for the right-wing European Research Group – down from 107 to 24 MPs – the candidates for Tory leadership are predominantly from the right/far-right of the party. And despite the fact that moves to the right only damaged their election results, they seem determined to repeat the same mistakes.

For some, that move ever closer to Reform UK Party Limited, has resulted in them abandoning the Conservative Party altogether. Suella Braverman – twice relieved of the position of home secretary – is rumoured to be planning to defect to Reform UK, perhaps having accepted that the role of Tory leader is not within her grasp. She wouldn’t be the first Tory MP to defect to the party (sorry, company), or likely the last.

At a time when world leaders, and the British public, are welcoming a change of tone and attitude in Westminster, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer is as popular as Boris Johnson ever was, the Tories are still clinging to old, failed ideas.

It was clear during the election that they were fighting the wrong battles. They focused on trying to retain the attention and support of those on the right/far-right while ignoring the much bigger threat from the centre/left, and it cost them dearly.

The often-tetchy Sunak now seems far more comfortable is his new role than in his previous one. When he first appeared in the Commons on the opposite side of the House, he promised the Tories would “fulfil our duties as the loyal opposition, professionally and effectively”. He may have even believed it, or at least hoped that someone, anyone, in his party would take note and adjust their behaviour accordingly. Based on the evidence so far, it seems the Tories are as unfit for opposition as they were for office – and they only have themselves to blame.

Nigel Farage’s history of incitement and violent rhetoric

Nigel Farage’s history of incitement and violent rhetoric

Jul 20, 2024 | Bylines, News

Farage blamed Trump’s attempted assassination on Democrats’ rhetoric, yet he’s no stranger to using the language of violence himself, writes Bremain vice Chair Lisa Burton for Yorkshire Bylines. 

Nigel Farage laid blame on Democrats’ rhetoric for Donald Trump’s attempted assassination attempt. Yet, he is culpable in creating a political sphere where violence, incitement and threatening behaviour are commonplace.

A fish rots from the head down

Political violence, threats and incitement are sadly becoming more common in today’s political sphere. Drip fed into our politics for over a decade and driven by our media’s fascination with divisive political players like Farage and Trump.

Incrementally, they and other antagonists went further and further as they pushed the boundaries of everyday political discourse and language. The more outrageous, divisive and hyperbolic they became, the more coverage they got. In turn, the political sphere has become more divided, angry, inflamed, and threatened. All this has been amplified and aided by social media, misinformation, dark money, often foreign, and Russia’s hybrid warfare.

When politicians get away with it, the public follows

The constant scapegoating and blaming of minorities and migrants for all the woes of their countries is deeply concerning to many. Grown-up, sensible debates about migration, primarily fuelled by capitalists’ requirements for constant economic growth, are almost impossible. Many on the more liberal, progressive side of politics feel the language heard from the hard right is dangerous and reminiscent of the demonisation of Jews and other minorities in 1930s Germany. The language does indeed have very similar connotations.

Divisive, fear-driven politics has become mainstream from the right as they have shifted to a type of hard-right populism that only functions around division, fear and wedge issues, whether that be migration, climate change, LGBTQ+ rights, or abortion. This has caused a tremendous amount of fear and anxiety on both sides of the political spectrum for differing reasons and has led to an environment where people are constantly made to feel angry and inflamed. The extremes of this can be seen on social media daily

Farage has often used the language of incitement and political violence

Not known to miss an opportunity for self-promotion, Farage was quickly on the job as he spoke to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg after the attempt on Trump’s life, saying, “The narrative put out there about Trump, by these liberals that oppose him, is so nasty… it almost encourages this type of behaviour”.

Farage has a very selective memory. He is by far one of the most divisive politicians the UK has ever seen, and he himself has used violent and threatening language on several occasions.

Instead of being shunned by the media, he became one of the most covered people in UK politics. Including being platformed an incredible 36 times on BBC Question Time

In this BBC interview before the Brexit referendum he said that “violence is the next step” if people feel that immigration is not being controlled and that voting doesn’t change anything. He then said it was “difficult to contemplate” it happening in Britain but added, “nothing is impossible”.

 

Farage is clever with his words. He knows how far to push and when to retract, and this rhetoric is intentional. His words have an aura of wishful thinking, and this is not the only example.

After the Brexit referendum, at an event where people paid to hear him speak, Farage was recorded saying:

“If they don’t deliver this Brexit that I spent 25 years of my life working for, then I will be forced to don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines.”

He also stated at the same event, “there will be widespread public anger in this country on a scale and in a way we have never seen before”.

In 2019, Farage was investigated by police (not charged) after multiple complaints about his comments in a speech he made in Wales. Talking about his frustrations over Brexit not happening fast enough he referenced the “overpaid pen pushers in Whitehall who are not doing a neutral job” and said “and once Brexit’s done, we’ll take the knife to them. Alright? Had enough of all of it. Had enough of all of it”.

The ‘take the knife’ remark by Farage was made just a month after a civil servant in his 60s was stabbed outside the Home Office. The Judge at the time stated, “This was an unprovoked, serious violent attack on a stranger, apparently on the basis that he worked for the Home Office”.

Threat to the judiciary

In 2016, business owner Gina Miller was the main plaintiff in a case that held the government at the time accountable for its attempts to ride roughshod over the British constitution and parliamentary sovereignty over the triggering of Article 50, which would start the process of leaving the EU. Farage made Brexit all about sovereignty, yet the executive’s moves were anti-democratic and denied parliamentary sovereignty.

Farage, however, wasn’t happy and threatened to lead a crowd of 100,000 protesters to Parliament Square and within earshot of the courthouse while the case was underway. The Welsh government’s top lawyer, Counsel General Mick Antoniw, at the time called for UKIP group leader Neil Hamilton to “disassociate himself from the comments that were made by his acting leader Farage who said they would be leading a march of 100,000 people to the Supreme Court, and that people were so angry that there might well be violence arising as a consequence … That, all I can see, is an attempt to intimidate an independent judiciary.”

The march was crowdfunded but never happened. The judges, however, faced intense backlash.

Sometimes, incitement comes without words

On 16 June 2016, just days before the Brexit referendum, Farage released, and stood in front of, this grossly inappropriate image, which garnered widespread condemnation from the media. It was denounced by left and right-wing politicians alike, and it was reported to the police that it incited racial hatred and breached UK race laws. The photograph used was of migrants crossing the Croatia-Slovenia border in 2015, with the only prominent white person in the picture obscured by a box of text. Many made the connection to images Nazis had used in their programme of fear and propaganda

Just hours later, Jo Cox, a Labour MP who supported inclusion, diversity, and remaining in the EU, was murdered in the street by a far-right terrorist, Thomas Mair, who shot her twice in the head and stabbed her. According to the eyewitness, he did so while saying, “Britain first, keep Britain independent, Britain will always come first”. Finally, he yelled: “This is for Britain.” Police found his room ‘stuffed’ with Nazi memorabilia and multiple links to far-right groups, including Americans.

Farage was unrepentant about the poster.

Take a stand

The assassination attempt on Trump was shocking. No matter your politics, we on all sides must reject violence, particularly political violence. But the fact that we often refer to ‘all sides’ tells us a lot too. There should be no ‘sides’ when it comes to our public servants and leaders. They are there to serve ALL the people, not just those who support them.

The populist far/hard right relies on discourse and rage creation to flourish. It’s all about us vs them. While it is impossible never to get angry and upset with what can often be cruel, deceitful and bigoted rhetoric, it’s up to all of us to reject all forms of threatening or political violence. Let’s try to live by the words of Michelle Obama:

 

“When they go low, we go high.”

Tory wipeout or comeback?

Tory wipeout or comeback?

Jun 21, 2024 | Bylines, News

Apparently, all the Conservatives need to turn this around is an opportunity to make their arguments – and some policies – and a magician! Bremain Chair Sue Wilson writes for Yorkshire Bylines. 

I doubt it will have escaped your notice but there’s an election happening soon in the UK. If the polls are to be believed – and the results across multiple sites would suggest they can – then the Conservatives are about to suffer an almost complete wipeout. Or in the words of polling guru, Professor John Curtice, the results would be the worst ever “by a country mile”.

Polls apart

In a new poll by Savanta and Electoral Calculus for The Telegraph, Labour are predicted to win 516 seats and a massive 382-seat majority, with the Conservatives and LibDems neck-and-neck on 53 and 50 seats respectively. If that weren’t bad enough, Rishi Sunak is predicted to lose his own seat – a feat never before accomplished by any prime minister at a general election, and quite the personal legacy. Other big names are also at risk of losing their seats, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and numerous cabinet ministers.

Two other polls released on the same day – by More in Common and YouGov – have the Conservatives on 155 and 108 seats. Better, but not by much. And whichever way you look at it, a disaster for the government on a monumental and historic scale.

The collapse in popularity of the government could be down to any number of factors: the pain and damage of austerity; changing public attitudes to a mis-sold Brexit; cronyism and chronic waste of public money; mishandling of, well, just about everything they’ve touched, or directly down to Sunak and his colleagues. The list is a long one, and it’s still growing.

 

There’s still time…

But, all is not yet lost, it seems.

While the public, the media, and quite probably most of parliament can see the writing on the Conservative wall, Levelling Up Minister Michael Gove has other ideas. According to him, there is still time to stage a comeback and to pull a rabbit out of the hat in extra time. All that’s needed, apparently, is “an opportunity to make these arguments” before “the final whistle”. And some policies. And a magician.

Gove’s arguments, it seems, amount only to warning voters of Labour’s “tax dangers” and their “plans for the future”. In that respect, he would appear to be on the same page as Sunak and many government ministers, in that their election campaign is all about Labour’s plans, not their own. Not to mention the fact that much of the public seem to quite like what Labour are selling.

Former Brexit negotiator Lord Frost, however, does not share Gove’s optimism. The Conservative Party, says Frost, is “hurtling towards a terrible defeat” because the party is not “doing Conservative things”. Frost also warned that Labour would drag Britain back into the “orbit” of Brussels by renegotiating what Keir Starmer described as Boris Johnson and Frost’s “botched” deal. Again, no sign of any ideas or policies of their own, just more criticism of the opposition.

What Gove, Frost, Sunak et al fail to understand is that hardly anyone trusts them, or believes a word they say anymore. As for suggesting that Labour will increase taxes for the less well off, that’s more than a bit rich coming from the “biggest tax-raising parliament on record” and a bunch of out-of-touch millionaires to boot.

Whether you believe the Conservatives are heading for a wipeout or a comeback, Frost and Gove have something in common – a strong tendency towards delusional thinking that came to a head with Brexit and shows no signs of fading.

The Oxford English definition of ‘delusion’ is “a false belief or judgment about external reality, held despite incontrovertible evidence to the contrary”. There’s plenty of incontrovertible evidence that the Conservatives are going to lose, and lose badly. Those within the party that believe otherwise deserve to be nowhere near positions of power. Thankfully, in two weeks’ time it looks like they won’t be.

Unite the right

Unite the right

Jun 12, 2024 | Bylines, News

As Braverman calls for her colleagues to embrace Farage, it could be argued that they’ve already been there, done that, bought the t-shirt, writes Bremain Chair Sue Wilson MBE for Yorkshire Bylines.

Across Europe, far-right groups are celebrating minor gains in the EU elections. While not living up to earlier expectations or hype, the result will see an increase in far-right MEPs in Brussels, but only by nine seats. Pro-European centre parties have claimed the victory and will form the majority in the European Parliament. The election results are, however, causing some upheaval – most notably in Belgium and France – with the resignation of Belgian PM De Croo, and with French President Macron calling a snap election.

Here at home, desperate Conservatives have long been witnessing the rise of the far-right both inside and outside their own party. Despite being largely responsible for that shift to the far-right, Conservatives can now only stand back and watch Reform UK steal much of their thunder, while their own leader looks increasingly hopeless, hapless and helpless.

Unite the right

While more centrist Conservatives – if there are any left – lose hope for the soul of their party, one of their most extreme members – former Home Secretary and Attorney General Suella Braverman – has other ideas. Staunch Brexiter Braverman is urging her party to “embrace” Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, saying she would welcome him into the party.

Braverman has argued that “there’s not much difference” between the policies of Farage and the Conservatives, as she called on her party to “unite the right”. This follows recent speculation that Farage could join the Conservative Party after the forthcoming election, potentially as leader – an idea supported by several senior party members, including Braverman, Liz Truss and Priti Patel.

Braverman’s comments follow a recent poll – conducted by the Independent newspaper – that suggested Farage was the most popular option to succeed Rishi Sunak as the leader, with 19% of votes cast. Hardly an overwhelming endorsement considering 48% of those polled said “don’t know” when asked who should be the next leader. Braverman herself received just 4% of the vote, coming in fifth, from a list of seven possible candidates.

When asked recently if he was proposing a merger between the Conservatives and Reform UK, Farage replied that it would be “more like a takeover”. First, though, there is the small matter of him winning a seat at Westminster after seven failed attempts.

 

UK election projection

Despite the rise in popularity of the far-right, the UK’s first-past-the-post voting system means Reform UK are unlikely to convert support into seats in Westminster. The latest YouGov poll shows a landslide result for Labour, with a projected 422 seats (a “historic majority of 194”), just 140 seats for the Conservatives, and no seats at all for Reform UK. For context, when Tony Blair won a landslide victory in 1997, Labour won 418 seats – the most ever – with a majority of 179.

YouGov’s director of political analysis, Patrick English, said the recent intervention of Farage as leader of the party “significantly increases the odds of Reform UK winning one, perhaps two seats at Westminster”. Farage’s return would also “improve Reform’s prospects” and, English added, their best hopes of success would come in constituencies where they were fielding ‘heavy hitters’. The three most likely constituencies to return a Reform UK candidate would be Clacton (where Farage himself is standing), Ashfield (Conservative defector, Lee Anderson) and Boston and Skegness (Richard Tice). The latest betting trends published by Oddschecker would seem to support English’s assertions

 

The Brexit effect

Brexiters Braverman, Anderson and Farage are all peas from the same populist, anti-immigration pod. When Anderson announced his defection from the Conservatives to Reform earlier this year, no one would have been surprised had Braverman followed suit. With Farage now keen to take over the Conservative Party, they could all end up in the same party. Assuming, of course, that any of them actually win enough support to be returned as MPs on 4 July.

As Braverman calls for her colleagues to embrace Farage, it could be argued that they’ve already been there, done that, bought the t-shirt. Farage’s influence, whether at the time of the Brexit referendum, or during the 2019 election, has brought the country, and the Conservatives, to where we are now – on the verge of a Labour landslide and with public trust in government completely eroded.

 

With few centrist voices left within what remains of the Conservative Party, their swing to the right, and their terrible legacy of failure, incompetence and waste, will surely bring about their electoral downfall. Perhaps even their total destruction. While the party was busy focussing on the loss of votes to Reform, they were blindsided by Labour’s resurgence, and a British public who have had quite enough.

What will happen to the Conservatives and Reform once our own election is over, remains to be seen. While they both skulk away to lick their wounds, the country will be switching its focus to the incoming Labour government. We’ll have questions. A lot of them. And many of them will focus on Brexit, whether they like it or not.

 

EU moves to the right

As for the European Union, it’s worth remembering that these were the first EU elections that excluded the UK electorate from voting. Not only that, but had we still been EU members, Labour would have – according to former Labour MEP Richard Corbett – “won enough seats to make the Socialists and Democrats the largest political group in the European Parliament”.

Brexit was supposed to be about “taking back control”. In reality, we lost control to far-right-extremists, losing our voice, our influence and our standing. At a time when we should be stood shoulder to shoulder with our allies, friends and neighbours, we’ve been isolated and adrift.

Being left alone to fight the battle against far-right extremism is a risk for the UK. As for Europe, the battle for the centre ground could be assuaged were London to stand beside Brussels. Perhaps, in this fight, the EU really does need us as much as we need them.

As for the next EU elections in 2029, will the UK have a vote? That may be a tall order. But don’t rule it out. A week, and five years, are a long time in politics.