Tories: unfit for office, unfit for opposition

Tories: unfit for office, unfit for opposition

Jul 22, 2024 | Bylines, News

Based on the evidence so far, it seems the Tories are as unfit for opposition as they were for office – and they only have themselves to blame, writes Bremain Chair Sue Wilson MBE for Yorkshire Bylines. 

On 4 July, the Conservatives suffered their worst election defeat in history, with a loss of 250 seats. After 14 years in power, and with his party way behind in the polls, Rishi Sunak called a snap election. The resulting disastrous campaign did nothing to change the government’s fortunes or their standing with the British public. Their time was finally up.

For the beleaguered party, the best that could be hoped for was a rejection of far-right policies and that lessons might be learned. Recent behaviour in the Commons by certain shadow cabinet ministers would suggest that they haven’t learned a thing.

“Constructive opposition”

Last Friday, new appointees were added to the shadow cabinet by Sunak, bringing the total number of shadow cabinet ministers to 51, or 42% of the total number of Tory MPs. Such is the dearth of MPs and ministers that 10 of those new appointees are being tasked with two or three different roles.

If the British public had been expecting better parliamentary behaviour from the Tories in opposition than in government, then we had set our sights too high. While many shadow cabinets ministers are new to the role and could be forgiven for failing to understand parliamentary rules and customs, it is those more experienced members who are causing discord in Westminster.

The worst examples of recent bad behaviour were to be witnessed during a speech by Environment Secretary Steve Deed. Steve Barclay, the shadow environment secretary, was critical of Labour plans for on-shore wind farms. Barclay said that the government planned “to take vast amounts of farmland out of food production in order to prioritise the eco-zealotry”. During his response, Deed denied a number of interventions from front-benchers Barclay, Kemi Badenoch and Victoria Atkins. Badenoch and Atkins, did not take it well.

Abominable behaviour

While Badenoch may have had a dig at Reed during his speech, it was Victoria Atkins, shadow health secretary, that took bad behaviour to another level. Standing at the despatch box, she repeatedly spoke over the environment secretary, breaking the Rules of Order and Decorum in House of Commons Procedure and Practice. The rules state that when a member is addressing the house, “no other Member may interrupt except to raise a question of privilege which has arisen suddenly or to raise a point of order”.

The behaviour was widely criticised by MPs, and eventually, by the deputy speaker, Christopher Chope, who said Atkins had “behaved abominably”. A response later supplied by Atkin’s office said she was merely “trying to get answers”, as if the ends had justified the means.

Badenoch, bad enough

In the debate that followed the King’s speech Kemi Badenoch, shadow levelling up secretary, launched an attack on Deputy PM Angela Rayner from the despatch box. In a speech that has been described as “patronising”, “disgraceful” and “unprofessional”, Badenoch told Rayner that she had been “stitched up” and made a “fall guy” by the Labour government. She offered to “hold her hand” at this “very difficult time”, and said she looked forward to telling Rayner “I told you so” when the new government repeated the mistakes of the old one.

The recent behaviour of both Atkins and Badenoch – although hardly out of character – has fuelled speculation that, yet again, their focus is on their own political careers, rather than the needs of their constituents. The fact that they believe this kind of behaviour is going to improve their chances in the race for leadership of the party just proves once more how detached they both are from the wishes and needs of the British people.

Tories lacking leadership material

Despite the drop in electoral support for the right-wing European Research Group – down from 107 to 24 MPs – the candidates for Tory leadership are predominantly from the right/far-right of the party. And despite the fact that moves to the right only damaged their election results, they seem determined to repeat the same mistakes.

For some, that move ever closer to Reform UK Party Limited, has resulted in them abandoning the Conservative Party altogether. Suella Braverman – twice relieved of the position of home secretary – is rumoured to be planning to defect to Reform UK, perhaps having accepted that the role of Tory leader is not within her grasp. She wouldn’t be the first Tory MP to defect to the party (sorry, company), or likely the last.

At a time when world leaders, and the British public, are welcoming a change of tone and attitude in Westminster, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer is as popular as Boris Johnson ever was, the Tories are still clinging to old, failed ideas.

It was clear during the election that they were fighting the wrong battles. They focused on trying to retain the attention and support of those on the right/far-right while ignoring the much bigger threat from the centre/left, and it cost them dearly.

The often-tetchy Sunak now seems far more comfortable is his new role than in his previous one. When he first appeared in the Commons on the opposite side of the House, he promised the Tories would “fulfil our duties as the loyal opposition, professionally and effectively”. He may have even believed it, or at least hoped that someone, anyone, in his party would take note and adjust their behaviour accordingly. Based on the evidence so far, it seems the Tories are as unfit for opposition as they were for office – and they only have themselves to blame.

Nigel Farage’s history of incitement and violent rhetoric

Nigel Farage’s history of incitement and violent rhetoric

Jul 20, 2024 | Bylines, News

Farage blamed Trump’s attempted assassination on Democrats’ rhetoric, yet he’s no stranger to using the language of violence himself, writes Bremain vice Chair Lisa Burton for Yorkshire Bylines. 

Nigel Farage laid blame on Democrats’ rhetoric for Donald Trump’s attempted assassination attempt. Yet, he is culpable in creating a political sphere where violence, incitement and threatening behaviour are commonplace.

A fish rots from the head down

Political violence, threats and incitement are sadly becoming more common in today’s political sphere. Drip fed into our politics for over a decade and driven by our media’s fascination with divisive political players like Farage and Trump.

Incrementally, they and other antagonists went further and further as they pushed the boundaries of everyday political discourse and language. The more outrageous, divisive and hyperbolic they became, the more coverage they got. In turn, the political sphere has become more divided, angry, inflamed, and threatened. All this has been amplified and aided by social media, misinformation, dark money, often foreign, and Russia’s hybrid warfare.

When politicians get away with it, the public follows

The constant scapegoating and blaming of minorities and migrants for all the woes of their countries is deeply concerning to many. Grown-up, sensible debates about migration, primarily fuelled by capitalists’ requirements for constant economic growth, are almost impossible. Many on the more liberal, progressive side of politics feel the language heard from the hard right is dangerous and reminiscent of the demonisation of Jews and other minorities in 1930s Germany. The language does indeed have very similar connotations.

Divisive, fear-driven politics has become mainstream from the right as they have shifted to a type of hard-right populism that only functions around division, fear and wedge issues, whether that be migration, climate change, LGBTQ+ rights, or abortion. This has caused a tremendous amount of fear and anxiety on both sides of the political spectrum for differing reasons and has led to an environment where people are constantly made to feel angry and inflamed. The extremes of this can be seen on social media daily

Farage has often used the language of incitement and political violence

Not known to miss an opportunity for self-promotion, Farage was quickly on the job as he spoke to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg after the attempt on Trump’s life, saying, “The narrative put out there about Trump, by these liberals that oppose him, is so nasty… it almost encourages this type of behaviour”.

Farage has a very selective memory. He is by far one of the most divisive politicians the UK has ever seen, and he himself has used violent and threatening language on several occasions.

Instead of being shunned by the media, he became one of the most covered people in UK politics. Including being platformed an incredible 36 times on BBC Question Time

In this BBC interview before the Brexit referendum he said that “violence is the next step” if people feel that immigration is not being controlled and that voting doesn’t change anything. He then said it was “difficult to contemplate” it happening in Britain but added, “nothing is impossible”.

 

Farage is clever with his words. He knows how far to push and when to retract, and this rhetoric is intentional. His words have an aura of wishful thinking, and this is not the only example.

After the Brexit referendum, at an event where people paid to hear him speak, Farage was recorded saying:

“If they don’t deliver this Brexit that I spent 25 years of my life working for, then I will be forced to don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines.”

He also stated at the same event, “there will be widespread public anger in this country on a scale and in a way we have never seen before”.

In 2019, Farage was investigated by police (not charged) after multiple complaints about his comments in a speech he made in Wales. Talking about his frustrations over Brexit not happening fast enough he referenced the “overpaid pen pushers in Whitehall who are not doing a neutral job” and said “and once Brexit’s done, we’ll take the knife to them. Alright? Had enough of all of it. Had enough of all of it”.

The ‘take the knife’ remark by Farage was made just a month after a civil servant in his 60s was stabbed outside the Home Office. The Judge at the time stated, “This was an unprovoked, serious violent attack on a stranger, apparently on the basis that he worked for the Home Office”.

Threat to the judiciary

In 2016, business owner Gina Miller was the main plaintiff in a case that held the government at the time accountable for its attempts to ride roughshod over the British constitution and parliamentary sovereignty over the triggering of Article 50, which would start the process of leaving the EU. Farage made Brexit all about sovereignty, yet the executive’s moves were anti-democratic and denied parliamentary sovereignty.

Farage, however, wasn’t happy and threatened to lead a crowd of 100,000 protesters to Parliament Square and within earshot of the courthouse while the case was underway. The Welsh government’s top lawyer, Counsel General Mick Antoniw, at the time called for UKIP group leader Neil Hamilton to “disassociate himself from the comments that were made by his acting leader Farage who said they would be leading a march of 100,000 people to the Supreme Court, and that people were so angry that there might well be violence arising as a consequence … That, all I can see, is an attempt to intimidate an independent judiciary.”

The march was crowdfunded but never happened. The judges, however, faced intense backlash.

Sometimes, incitement comes without words

On 16 June 2016, just days before the Brexit referendum, Farage released, and stood in front of, this grossly inappropriate image, which garnered widespread condemnation from the media. It was denounced by left and right-wing politicians alike, and it was reported to the police that it incited racial hatred and breached UK race laws. The photograph used was of migrants crossing the Croatia-Slovenia border in 2015, with the only prominent white person in the picture obscured by a box of text. Many made the connection to images Nazis had used in their programme of fear and propaganda

Just hours later, Jo Cox, a Labour MP who supported inclusion, diversity, and remaining in the EU, was murdered in the street by a far-right terrorist, Thomas Mair, who shot her twice in the head and stabbed her. According to the eyewitness, he did so while saying, “Britain first, keep Britain independent, Britain will always come first”. Finally, he yelled: “This is for Britain.” Police found his room ‘stuffed’ with Nazi memorabilia and multiple links to far-right groups, including Americans.

Farage was unrepentant about the poster.

Take a stand

The assassination attempt on Trump was shocking. No matter your politics, we on all sides must reject violence, particularly political violence. But the fact that we often refer to ‘all sides’ tells us a lot too. There should be no ‘sides’ when it comes to our public servants and leaders. They are there to serve ALL the people, not just those who support them.

The populist far/hard right relies on discourse and rage creation to flourish. It’s all about us vs them. While it is impossible never to get angry and upset with what can often be cruel, deceitful and bigoted rhetoric, it’s up to all of us to reject all forms of threatening or political violence. Let’s try to live by the words of Michelle Obama:

 

“When they go low, we go high.”

Tory wipeout or comeback?

Tory wipeout or comeback?

Jun 21, 2024 | Bylines, News

Apparently, all the Conservatives need to turn this around is an opportunity to make their arguments – and some policies – and a magician! Bremain Chair Sue Wilson writes for Yorkshire Bylines. 

I doubt it will have escaped your notice but there’s an election happening soon in the UK. If the polls are to be believed – and the results across multiple sites would suggest they can – then the Conservatives are about to suffer an almost complete wipeout. Or in the words of polling guru, Professor John Curtice, the results would be the worst ever “by a country mile”.

Polls apart

In a new poll by Savanta and Electoral Calculus for The Telegraph, Labour are predicted to win 516 seats and a massive 382-seat majority, with the Conservatives and LibDems neck-and-neck on 53 and 50 seats respectively. If that weren’t bad enough, Rishi Sunak is predicted to lose his own seat – a feat never before accomplished by any prime minister at a general election, and quite the personal legacy. Other big names are also at risk of losing their seats, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and numerous cabinet ministers.

Two other polls released on the same day – by More in Common and YouGov – have the Conservatives on 155 and 108 seats. Better, but not by much. And whichever way you look at it, a disaster for the government on a monumental and historic scale.

The collapse in popularity of the government could be down to any number of factors: the pain and damage of austerity; changing public attitudes to a mis-sold Brexit; cronyism and chronic waste of public money; mishandling of, well, just about everything they’ve touched, or directly down to Sunak and his colleagues. The list is a long one, and it’s still growing.

 

There’s still time…

But, all is not yet lost, it seems.

While the public, the media, and quite probably most of parliament can see the writing on the Conservative wall, Levelling Up Minister Michael Gove has other ideas. According to him, there is still time to stage a comeback and to pull a rabbit out of the hat in extra time. All that’s needed, apparently, is “an opportunity to make these arguments” before “the final whistle”. And some policies. And a magician.

Gove’s arguments, it seems, amount only to warning voters of Labour’s “tax dangers” and their “plans for the future”. In that respect, he would appear to be on the same page as Sunak and many government ministers, in that their election campaign is all about Labour’s plans, not their own. Not to mention the fact that much of the public seem to quite like what Labour are selling.

Former Brexit negotiator Lord Frost, however, does not share Gove’s optimism. The Conservative Party, says Frost, is “hurtling towards a terrible defeat” because the party is not “doing Conservative things”. Frost also warned that Labour would drag Britain back into the “orbit” of Brussels by renegotiating what Keir Starmer described as Boris Johnson and Frost’s “botched” deal. Again, no sign of any ideas or policies of their own, just more criticism of the opposition.

What Gove, Frost, Sunak et al fail to understand is that hardly anyone trusts them, or believes a word they say anymore. As for suggesting that Labour will increase taxes for the less well off, that’s more than a bit rich coming from the “biggest tax-raising parliament on record” and a bunch of out-of-touch millionaires to boot.

Whether you believe the Conservatives are heading for a wipeout or a comeback, Frost and Gove have something in common – a strong tendency towards delusional thinking that came to a head with Brexit and shows no signs of fading.

The Oxford English definition of ‘delusion’ is “a false belief or judgment about external reality, held despite incontrovertible evidence to the contrary”. There’s plenty of incontrovertible evidence that the Conservatives are going to lose, and lose badly. Those within the party that believe otherwise deserve to be nowhere near positions of power. Thankfully, in two weeks’ time it looks like they won’t be.

Unite the right

Unite the right

Jun 12, 2024 | Bylines, News

As Braverman calls for her colleagues to embrace Farage, it could be argued that they’ve already been there, done that, bought the t-shirt, writes Bremain Chair Sue Wilson MBE for Yorkshire Bylines.

Across Europe, far-right groups are celebrating minor gains in the EU elections. While not living up to earlier expectations or hype, the result will see an increase in far-right MEPs in Brussels, but only by nine seats. Pro-European centre parties have claimed the victory and will form the majority in the European Parliament. The election results are, however, causing some upheaval – most notably in Belgium and France – with the resignation of Belgian PM De Croo, and with French President Macron calling a snap election.

Here at home, desperate Conservatives have long been witnessing the rise of the far-right both inside and outside their own party. Despite being largely responsible for that shift to the far-right, Conservatives can now only stand back and watch Reform UK steal much of their thunder, while their own leader looks increasingly hopeless, hapless and helpless.

Unite the right

While more centrist Conservatives – if there are any left – lose hope for the soul of their party, one of their most extreme members – former Home Secretary and Attorney General Suella Braverman – has other ideas. Staunch Brexiter Braverman is urging her party to “embrace” Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, saying she would welcome him into the party.

Braverman has argued that “there’s not much difference” between the policies of Farage and the Conservatives, as she called on her party to “unite the right”. This follows recent speculation that Farage could join the Conservative Party after the forthcoming election, potentially as leader – an idea supported by several senior party members, including Braverman, Liz Truss and Priti Patel.

Braverman’s comments follow a recent poll – conducted by the Independent newspaper – that suggested Farage was the most popular option to succeed Rishi Sunak as the leader, with 19% of votes cast. Hardly an overwhelming endorsement considering 48% of those polled said “don’t know” when asked who should be the next leader. Braverman herself received just 4% of the vote, coming in fifth, from a list of seven possible candidates.

When asked recently if he was proposing a merger between the Conservatives and Reform UK, Farage replied that it would be “more like a takeover”. First, though, there is the small matter of him winning a seat at Westminster after seven failed attempts.

 

UK election projection

Despite the rise in popularity of the far-right, the UK’s first-past-the-post voting system means Reform UK are unlikely to convert support into seats in Westminster. The latest YouGov poll shows a landslide result for Labour, with a projected 422 seats (a “historic majority of 194”), just 140 seats for the Conservatives, and no seats at all for Reform UK. For context, when Tony Blair won a landslide victory in 1997, Labour won 418 seats – the most ever – with a majority of 179.

YouGov’s director of political analysis, Patrick English, said the recent intervention of Farage as leader of the party “significantly increases the odds of Reform UK winning one, perhaps two seats at Westminster”. Farage’s return would also “improve Reform’s prospects” and, English added, their best hopes of success would come in constituencies where they were fielding ‘heavy hitters’. The three most likely constituencies to return a Reform UK candidate would be Clacton (where Farage himself is standing), Ashfield (Conservative defector, Lee Anderson) and Boston and Skegness (Richard Tice). The latest betting trends published by Oddschecker would seem to support English’s assertions

 

The Brexit effect

Brexiters Braverman, Anderson and Farage are all peas from the same populist, anti-immigration pod. When Anderson announced his defection from the Conservatives to Reform earlier this year, no one would have been surprised had Braverman followed suit. With Farage now keen to take over the Conservative Party, they could all end up in the same party. Assuming, of course, that any of them actually win enough support to be returned as MPs on 4 July.

As Braverman calls for her colleagues to embrace Farage, it could be argued that they’ve already been there, done that, bought the t-shirt. Farage’s influence, whether at the time of the Brexit referendum, or during the 2019 election, has brought the country, and the Conservatives, to where we are now – on the verge of a Labour landslide and with public trust in government completely eroded.

 

With few centrist voices left within what remains of the Conservative Party, their swing to the right, and their terrible legacy of failure, incompetence and waste, will surely bring about their electoral downfall. Perhaps even their total destruction. While the party was busy focussing on the loss of votes to Reform, they were blindsided by Labour’s resurgence, and a British public who have had quite enough.

What will happen to the Conservatives and Reform once our own election is over, remains to be seen. While they both skulk away to lick their wounds, the country will be switching its focus to the incoming Labour government. We’ll have questions. A lot of them. And many of them will focus on Brexit, whether they like it or not.

 

EU moves to the right

As for the European Union, it’s worth remembering that these were the first EU elections that excluded the UK electorate from voting. Not only that, but had we still been EU members, Labour would have – according to former Labour MEP Richard Corbett – “won enough seats to make the Socialists and Democrats the largest political group in the European Parliament”.

Brexit was supposed to be about “taking back control”. In reality, we lost control to far-right-extremists, losing our voice, our influence and our standing. At a time when we should be stood shoulder to shoulder with our allies, friends and neighbours, we’ve been isolated and adrift.

Being left alone to fight the battle against far-right extremism is a risk for the UK. As for Europe, the battle for the centre ground could be assuaged were London to stand beside Brussels. Perhaps, in this fight, the EU really does need us as much as we need them.

As for the next EU elections in 2029, will the UK have a vote? That may be a tall order. But don’t rule it out. A week, and five years, are a long time in politics.

Hunt’s taxing rhetoric: empty promises and fear mongering

Hunt’s taxing rhetoric: empty promises and fear mongering

May 22, 2024 | Bylines, News

With the numbers not in his favour, and having run out of ideas, Hunt has opted for the classic finger pointing “look, Labour will be worse, honest!”, writes Bremain Chair Sue Wilson MBE for Yorkshire Bylines.

Speaking at an event in London on Friday, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt made promises to cut taxes. Again. Though he can’t say by how much, or when. Or even confirm what will be in his party’s manifesto for the next parliament. All he can do is “make a very clear argument that we will bring down taxes, because that is already what we have been doing”. Really? Can’t say we’ve noticed.

Hunt’s empty rhetoric and pointless promises

Like many of his colleagues, promises made by Hunt will only come into effect should the Conservatives win the election. Considering both the country and the government know they are going to lose that battle, the promises are both cynical and pointless.

Not only that but promises being made for the current parliamentary term come with conditions attached. While Hunt has pledged to cut national insurance again this autumn, that’s only “if we can afford it”. By “we”, I don’t believe he’s referring to himself and his fellow millionaires. Hunt also pledged that there would be no increased borrowing or spending cuts and any tax cuts pre-election would “come through growth in the economy”. Given the government’s economic record over the last 14 years, the expectations aren’t high.

The Chancellor defended the government’s handling of the economy, claiming it was a “myth” that the UK was performing badly in comparison to similar countries. While accepting that the financial crisis, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine had been detrimental factors affecting the economy, Brexit, unsurprisingly, failed to get a mention.

Record levels of taxation under the Conservatives

The UK tax burden is currently at historically high levels according to the Office of Budget Responsibility. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) recent annual report showed a tax-to-GDP ratio of 35.3% for the 2022/2023 financial year – the highest level since records began in 2000. The figure is predicted to continue to rise to 37.7% by 2029, despite Hunt’s recent National Insurance cut.

When the OECD figures were produced in December, Labour argued that it was as a direct consequence of years of “Conservative economic failure”. Hardly surprising then that we rarely hear the claim anymore that the Conservatives are the party of low taxes.

So, when the numbers don’t work in your favour, and you’ve run out of ideas and steam, there’s always that favoured old tactic – point the finger elsewhere, preferably at the opposition.

 

This is the reality of any Labour government, as history shows us.

Taxes going up, hitting you in the pocket – as the official analysis by the Treasury today shows. 

— Jeremy Hunt (@Jeremy_Hunt) May 17, 2024

Look over there!

Forget the financial crisis, Ukraine, the pandemic, or anything else that may have caused the economic mess the country is in. As far as Hunt and his colleagues are concerned, it’s not their fault. And it’s going to get worse when they are not in charge. Not only will “taxes go up” under a Labour government, “as sure as night follows day”, but Labour’s £38bn spending pledge means “tax rises for everyone”.

Labour have responded by stating that all their policies are “fully costed and fully funded”, and that, unlike the Conservatives, Labour would never play “fast and loose with the public finances”.

Labour’s £38bn plan, according to Hunt, would cost every family in the country almost £2,100 in additional taxes. Except, once again, government claims have been “community noted” on social media as inaccurate or misleading. The costings quoted by Hunt were “widely acknowledged to be political” based on “assumptions from special advisers”, rather than from independent civil servants.

With trust in the government at rock bottom levels, all but the most loyal of Conservative supporters are likely to take Hunt’s warnings with a large pinch of salt. If this is a campaign aimed at scaring the public with negative numbers, it’s reminiscent of the doomed Project Fear campaign of the Brexit era – and likely to prove just as ineffective.

Of course, the British public are concerned about the high level of taxes and the impact on their cost of living. But they are also concerned about how those taxes are distributed between the haves and the have nots, and how those taxes are spent. After 14 years of Conservative rule, austerity, spending cuts and waste on an industrial scale, the country is desperate for change.

The next government will have a monumental task on its hands dealing with huge economic pressures and the damaging legacy of the Conservatives. Labour may not have all the answers, but they have one huge advantage in their favour. They are not the Conservatives. That fact alone should give us all cause to celebrate, and to hope for a brighter, fairer and more prosperous future.

Deciphering Conservative Party doublespeak

Deciphering Conservative Party doublespeak

May 18, 2024 | Bylines, News

Badenoch’s latest UK trade figure announcement requires more cautious reading, writes Bremain Vice Chair Lisa Burton for Yorkshire Bylines. 

The Conservatives cannot be trusted to provide accurate information without skewing data, misleading comparisons, or indulging in some Trumpian ‘alternative facts’, particularly in their denial of Brexit damage. Kemi Badenoch’s latest trade figure announcement continues this trend.

After Badenoch announced impressive trade figures and other stats, Brexiters latched onto them as proof that Brexit is, and has been, a roaring success. But are all these figures an accurate and fair indication of the economic and trade situation, and do they prove Brexit success?

 

Fourth biggest exporter in the world?

Badenoch’s overall quoted figures in the above graphic are a mixture of 2022 and 2023 results. She stated in parliament that the UK was the fourth largest exporter in 2022. To conflate and make fact-checking harder, the sum of £862bn in trade is from a different year, ending Feb 2024.

Why do this? In 2022, sums were inflated by a rise in oil and gas import and export prices, due to the Ukraine war as well as inflation. Her figure was not adjusted for inflation and precious metal trades, which would be standard for making long-term comparisons.

The ONS’s 2023 trade data show that UK trade was much more stable in 2023 than in 2022. If you only look at the top-line figure, it seems like an increase in trade. However, once adjusted for inflation, total goods exports (not services) fell in 2023 by £15.2bn (4.6%) compared with 2022, with substantial decreases in exports to the EU and non-EU countries.

Compared with 2018 (the last stable period), total goods exports fell by £44.7bn (12.4%). In comparison, the rest of the G7 were up 5%. Without Brexit, we could safely assume that goods exports would have risen in line with the rest of the G7 and be around 17% higher than where they are. Now, that would have been a success story!

Looking at trade in goods for 2023, we see a very different worldview.

Leading the world in services?

The UK has a robust service industry and history of service exports. Most export growth mentioned came from financial services, insurance, travel, telecommunications and computer and information services. They have continued to do well since Brexit because, unlike trade in physical goods, most services are delivered digitally, for example, selling an insurance policy to someone or a company abroad. Services don’t have to navigate the same barriers that Brexit erected by adhering to strict customs rules with the products crossing a physical border. It makes sense they would be less affected by Brexit than other sectors.

Leading the world though? With $929bn worth of services sold internationally in 2022, the United States of America remained the world’s leader. The UK was second, by some distance, at $494bn. Still, considering the difference in the size of economies, this an impressive figure, albeit despite Brexit and Conservative policy.

 

£862bn in exports?

Not quite. The biggest issue with Badenoch’s figures of £862bn in the government’s report is that it has not been adjusted for inflation, which is standard for analysing long-term flows. The data she uses for the report from the Department of Business and Trade for the government document clearly states: “Unless otherwise stated, all figures are reported in nominal (current prices) and have not been adjusted for inflation. Accurate estimates (Chained Volume Measures) take into account inflation.”

Badenoch used the below graph to highlight the £862bn figure but after removing the effects of inflation, total annual UK exports of combined goods and services were £690.8bn in 2023, but hey, what’s a mere £172bn between friends?

In July 2023, the UK signed an agreement (not a trade deal) to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) – an Asia-Pacific trade bloc of 11 countries. This agreement is not yet in force for the UK. While it is good for cooperation and relations, the government has severely overegged this one, too.

Estimates show a mere £2bn boost to trade by 2040, less than 0.07% of UK GDP, mainly because the country already has FTAs with most CPTPP partners.

The UK has also signed digital trade agreements with Singapore and Ukraine; these are not considered ‘free trade agreements’.

To cut through the jargon – If we add up the impact of all the current FTAs and, for good measure, throw in the two big ones the Conservatives want with India and the USA, it would only give the UK a total boost of around 1% of GDP by 2040. This is a tiny amount compared with the already incurred loss of around 5% in GDP due to leaving the EU.

It feels slightly contemptuous, assuming the public won’t know the difference, so why? Could it have something to do with the fact that last year Badenoch made a speech and came up with the plan called ‘Race to a Trillion’? £1tn in exports by 2030. So, if that’s her plan, which sounds better? £862bn, or £690bn. I think we have our answer.

 

73 trade deals agreed?

We often hear the government boasting of a new trade deal, but how good are they? Who benefits?

Of the 71 free trade agreements (FTAs) or trade deals the UK has signed since leaving the EU, 68 are rollover deals identical to those the UK had with those countries when it was inside the single market.

The UK has signed three new trade agreements since leaving the EU: with Australia, New Zealand and Japan. The National Farmers’ Union has strongly criticised the outcomes of the deals with New Zealand and Australia for their long-term effect on sectors like British beef and lamb, dairy and horticulture, saying “there appears to be little in those trade deals to benefit British farmers”. British farmers feel betrayed by their government and all for a cheap, quick Brexit success headline. Even New Zealand sees this.

Highest FDI (foreign direct investment) stock in Europe?

London remains a global financial powerhouse, and I’d love to break this down more. Still, after researching thoroughly, I found that the figure is too ambiguous and lacks details on what it supposedly represents. The only statistics I could find for the inward ‘stock’ of FDI were from 2022, and the Netherlands pipped the UK for the top place. If this applies solely to the UK’s FDI ‘stock market value’, and is for 2023, it could be correct.

Regarding FDI, France is first and has been for several years. In 2023, the UK was second, with Germany third. In 2022, the UK was third after France and Italy for inward FDI and second after Germany in outward FDI

 

80,000 jobs from 1600 FDI projects?

As noted above, France received the highest number of FDI projects at 1,194. The UK received 985 FDI projects in 2023, down 6% from 2022. Badenoch’s figures of 1600 FDI projects with 80,00 jobs created are amalgamated over a two-year period – certainly not a usual way of presenting figures.

 

The UK has done well overall on FDI investment, but the graph regarding general business investment shows a different story. Brexit has diminished confidence in the UK for businesses, making it much harder for them to plan ahead, which has led to this decline.

Faster growing economy than Germany, Italy and Japan?

In 2020, the UK was the worst-performing economy in the G7, seeing a 10.36% drop. The UK was the only country to drop double digits, which was one of the reasons its bounce back was also the highest in 2021, with an 8.68% lift. The UK also did well in 2022, when fuel prices and inflation were volatile. In 2023, however, only Germany had lower growth; this year, it looks the same. Looking at the graph below, the government is a little picky with its story by focusing on specific years only, not the overall picture or one available now.

Higher employment than in the USA, France or Italy?

This is a half-truth. In the case of France and Italy, yes, but not the USA. In 2023, the annual unemployment rate in the UK was 3.9%. The national unemployment rate in the USA in 2022 and 2023 was less than 3.6%. The UK is expected to see a rise in unemployment to 4.4% this year.

 

500 trade barriers removed?

Finally, here is a beautiful example of Tory doublespeak. They mean they have eliminated tariffs or allowed access to certain products to/from other marketplaces. Some examples given are:

  • Selling new medicines and medical devices to South Africa.
  • Cutting red tape for British pharma companies has also already led to £17mn of new business secured in Colombia.

UK-qualified professionals, including architects and auditors, will not have to fully requalify to work in Switzerland. Before Brexit, UK professional qualifications were mutually recognised across the EU member states. Since Brexit, they are not and have to be negotiated with individual countries, putting many UK professionals at a significant disadvantage to their European counterparts.
Rejoicing about removing trade barriers while completely ignoring that by leaving the EU, we erected trade barriers with our closest and largest trading bloc, adding mountains of paperwork, red tape and costs seems oxymoronic.

Small and medium-sized businesses, in particular, are struggling. In 2023, 45% of SMEs said it’s getting harder to trade in goods with the EU compared with 36% one year earlier, with a similar rise for SMEs selling services (43%, previously 34%). Large corporations and manufacturers can adapt and swallow these costs, but smaller businesses cannot, stifling growth and productivity.

 

Summary

Since Brexit, the UK’s ‘trade intensity’ (trade as a proportion of GDP) has fallen significantly, considerably more than other advanced economies. The UK economy has grown in some aspects, but not as much as it would have if we were still part of the European Union. Hence, any good news is despite Brexit, NOT because of Brexit. The graph below shows where the UK would have been without the Brexit effect.

In her words, Badenoch used these numbers to “confirm that the strategy the public voted for on 23 June 2016 is delivering. Leaving the European Union was a vote of confidence, and we are seeing the results”. For her to say so is profoundly flawed and categorically wrong.

With the cost-of-living crisis, crumbling services, rising costs and wage stagnation, the British public sees and feels a different reality to the sunlit uplands Badenoch and the Conservative party portray. “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” Luckily, the majority of the British people are not quite there yet.