Across Europe, far-right groups are celebrating minor gains in the EU elections. While not living up to earlier expectations or hype, the result will see an increase in far-right MEPs in Brussels, but only by nine seats. Pro-European centre parties have claimed the victory and will form the majority in the European Parliament. The election results are, however, causing some upheaval – most notably in Belgium and France – with the resignation of Belgian PM De Croo, and with French President Macron calling a snap election.

Here at home, desperate Conservatives have long been witnessing the rise of the far-right both inside and outside their own party. Despite being largely responsible for that shift to the far-right, Conservatives can now only stand back and watch Reform UK steal much of their thunder, while their own leader looks increasingly hopeless, hapless and helpless.

Today’s Times.

The Conservative Party is now rapidly circling the plug hole of Farage. They should never have swum so close.

Better for the One Nation Tories to fight back to the middle ground where their party has a future than, like Braverman, acquiesce to this fate. pic.twitter.com/zrepuv699a

— Mike Galsworthy (@mikegalsworthy) June 10, 2024

Unite the right

While more centrist Conservatives – if there are any left – lose hope for the soul of their party, one of their most extreme members – former Home Secretary and Attorney General Suella Braverman – has other ideas. Staunch Brexiter Braverman is urging her party to “embrace” Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, saying she would welcome him into the party.

Braverman has argued that “there’s not much difference” between the policies of Farage and the Conservatives, as she called on her party to “unite the right”. This follows recent speculation that Farage could join the Conservative Party after the forthcoming election, potentially as leader – an idea supported by several senior party members, including Braverman, Liz Truss and Priti Patel.

Tory insiders fear Farage takeover after election wipeout

Seems inevitable after the futile Tory lurch to the far-right to try to stave off Farage

Let’s just hope it all becomes irrelevant after that predicted wipeout!#GTTO https://t.co/xUDOjok0zJ

— Dr Tim Kinsella #FBPA #FBPE (@51TJK) June 9, 2024

Braverman’s comments follow a recent poll – conducted by the Independent newspaper – that suggested Farage was the most popular option to succeed Rishi Sunak as the leader, with 19% of votes cast. Hardly an overwhelming endorsement considering 48% of those polled said “don’t know” when asked who should be the next leader. Braverman herself received just 4% of the vote, coming in fifth, from a list of seven possible candidates.

When asked recently if he was proposing a merger between the Conservatives and Reform UK, Farage replied that it would be “more like a takeover”. First, though, there is the small matter of him winning a seat at Westminster after seven failed attempts.

UK election projection

Despite the rise in popularity of the far-right, the UK’s first-past-the-post voting system means Reform UK are unlikely to convert support into seats in Westminster. The latest YouGov poll shows a landslide result for Labour, with a projected 422 seats (a “historic majority of 194”), just 140 seats for the Conservatives, and no seats at all for Reform UK. For context, when Tony Blair won a landslide victory in 1997, Labour won 418 seats – the most ever – with a majority of 179.

YouGov’s director of political analysis, Patrick English, said the recent intervention of Farage as leader of the party “significantly increases the odds of Reform UK winning one, perhaps two seats at Westminster”. Farage’s return would also “improve Reform’s prospects” and, English added, their best hopes of success would come in constituencies where they were fielding ‘heavy hitters’. The three most likely constituencies to return a Reform UK candidate would be Clacton (where Farage himself is standing), Ashfield (Conservative defector, Lee Anderson) and Boston and Skegness (Richard Tice). The latest betting trends published by Oddschecker would seem to support English’s assertions

The Brexit effect

Brexiters Braverman, Anderson and Farage are all peas from the same populist, anti-immigration pod. When Anderson announced his defection from the Conservatives to Reform earlier this year, no one would have been surprised had Braverman followed suit. With Farage now keen to take over the Conservative Party, they could all end up in the same party. Assuming, of course, that any of them actually win enough support to be returned as MPs on 4 July.

As Braverman calls for her colleagues to embrace Farage, it could be argued that they’ve already been there, done that, bought the t-shirt. Farage’s influence, whether at the time of the Brexit referendum, or during the 2019 election, has brought the country, and the Conservatives, to where we are now – on the verge of a Labour landslide and with public trust in government completely eroded.

#EUelections
Had Britain still been in the EU, under current polls, Labour would have won enough seats to make the Socialists & Democrats the largest political Group in the European Parliament (and Labour the largest party within it)

— Richard Corbett (@RichardGCorbett) June 9, 2024

With few centrist voices left within what remains of the Conservative Party, their swing to the right, and their terrible legacy of failure, incompetence and waste, will surely bring about their electoral downfall. Perhaps even their total destruction. While the party was busy focussing on the loss of votes to Reform, they were blindsided by Labour’s resurgence, and a British public who have had quite enough.

What will happen to the Conservatives and Reform once our own election is over, remains to be seen. While they both skulk away to lick their wounds, the country will be switching its focus to the incoming Labour government. We’ll have questions. A lot of them. And many of them will focus on Brexit, whether they like it or not.

EU moves to the right

As for the European Union, it’s worth remembering that these were the first EU elections that excluded the UK electorate from voting. Not only that, but had we still been EU members, Labour would have – according to former Labour MEP Richard Corbett – “won enough seats to make the Socialists and Democrats the largest political group in the European Parliament”.

Brexit was supposed to be about “taking back control”. In reality, we lost control to far-right-extremists, losing our voice, our influence and our standing. At a time when we should be stood shoulder to shoulder with our allies, friends and neighbours, we’ve been isolated and adrift.

Being left alone to fight the battle against far-right extremism is a risk for the UK. As for Europe, the battle for the centre ground could be assuaged were London to stand beside Brussels. Perhaps, in this fight, the EU really does need us as much as we need them.

As for the next EU elections in 2029, will the UK have a vote? That may be a tall order. But don’t rule it out. A week, and five years, are a long time in politics.

Speaking at an event in London on Friday, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt made promises to cut taxes. Again. Though he can’t say by how much, or when. Or even confirm what will be in his party’s manifesto for the next parliament. All he can do is “make a very clear argument that we will bring down taxes, because that is already what we have been doing”. Really? Can’t say we’ve noticed.

Promises, promises but the public have had enough. It’s not all about low taxes. The people know this.

Watch: Jeremy Hunt promises tax cuts if Tories win general election https://t.co/lVOzoB5XjE

— BremainInSpain (@BremainInSpain) May 17, 2024

Hunt’s empty rhetoric and pointless promises

Like many of his colleagues, promises made by Hunt will only come into effect should the Conservatives win the election. Considering both the country and the government know they are going to lose that battle, the promises are both cynical and pointless.

Not only that but promises being made for the current parliamentary term come with conditions attached. While Hunt has pledged to cut national insurance again this autumn, that’s only “if we can afford it”. By “we”, I don’t believe he’s referring to himself and his fellow millionaires. Hunt also pledged that there would be no increased borrowing or spending cuts and any tax cuts pre-election would “come through growth in the economy”. Given the government’s economic record over the last 14 years, the expectations aren’t high.

The Chancellor defended the government’s handling of the economy, claiming it was a “myth” that the UK was performing badly in comparison to similar countries. While accepting that the financial crisis, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine had been detrimental factors affecting the economy, Brexit, unsurprisingly, failed to get a mention.

Record levels of taxation under the Conservatives

The UK tax burden is currently at historically high levels according to the Office of Budget Responsibility. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) recent annual report showed a tax-to-GDP ratio of 35.3% for the 2022/2023 financial year – the highest level since records began in 2000. The figure is predicted to continue to rise to 37.7% by 2029, despite Hunt’s recent National Insurance cut.

When the OECD figures were produced in December, Labour argued that it was as a direct consequence of years of “Conservative economic failure”. Hardly surprising then that we rarely hear the claim anymore that the Conservatives are the party of low taxes.

So, when the numbers don’t work in your favour, and you’ve run out of ideas and steam, there’s always that favoured old tactic – point the finger elsewhere, preferably at the opposition.

Look over there!

Forget the financial crisis, Ukraine, the pandemic, or anything else that may have caused the economic mess the country is in. As far as Hunt and his colleagues are concerned, it’s not their fault. And it’s going to get worse when they are not in charge. Not only will “taxes go up” under a Labour government, “as sure as night follows day”, but Labour’s £38bn spending pledge means “tax rises for everyone”.

Labour have responded by stating that all their policies are “fully costed and fully funded”, and that, unlike the Conservatives, Labour would never play “fast and loose with the public finances”.

Labour’s £38bn plan, according to Hunt, would cost every family in the country almost £2,100 in additional taxes. Except, once again, government claims have been “community noted” on social media as inaccurate or misleading. The costings quoted by Hunt were “widely acknowledged to be political” based on “assumptions from special advisers”, rather than from independent civil servants.

The gov't, once more, community noted. ~AA pic.twitter.com/YpVoHN8L8Y

— Best for Britain (@BestForBritain) May 17, 2024

With trust in the government at rock bottom levels, all but the most loyal of Conservative supporters are likely to take Hunt’s warnings with a large pinch of salt. If this is a campaign aimed at scaring the public with negative numbers, it’s reminiscent of the doomed Project Fear campaign of the Brexit era – and likely to prove just as ineffective.

Of course, the British public are concerned about the high level of taxes and the impact on their cost of living. But they are also concerned about how those taxes are distributed between the haves and the have nots, and how those taxes are spent. After 14 years of Conservative rule, austerity, spending cuts and waste on an industrial scale, the country is desperate for change.

The next government will have a monumental task on its hands dealing with huge economic pressures and the damaging legacy of the Conservatives. Labour may not have all the answers, but they have one huge advantage in their favour. They are not the Conservatives. That fact alone should give us all cause to celebrate, and to hope for a brighter, fairer and more prosperous future.

The Conservatives cannot be trusted to provide accurate information without skewing data, misleading comparisons, or indulging in some Trumpian ‘alternative facts’, particularly in their denial of Brexit damage. Kemi Badenoch’s latest trade figure announcement continues this trend.

After Badenoch announced impressive trade figures and other stats, Brexiters latched onto them as proof that Brexit is, and has been, a roaring success. But are all these figures an accurate and fair indication of the economic and trade situation, and do they prove Brexit success?

Fourth biggest exporter in the world?

Badenoch’s overall quoted figures in the above graphic are a mixture of 2022 and 2023 results. She stated in parliament that the UK was the fourth largest exporter in 2022. To conflate and make fact-checking harder, the sum of £862bn in trade is from a different year, ending Feb 2024.

Why do this? In 2022, sums were inflated by a rise in oil and gas import and export prices, due to the Ukraine war as well as inflation. Her figure was not adjusted for inflation and precious metal trades, which would be standard for making long-term comparisons.

The ONS’s 2023 trade data show that UK trade was much more stable in 2023 than in 2022. If you only look at the top-line figure, it seems like an increase in trade. However, once adjusted for inflation, total goods exports (not services) fell in 2023 by £15.2bn (4.6%) compared with 2022, with substantial decreases in exports to the EU and non-EU countries.

Compared with 2018 (the last stable period), total goods exports fell by £44.7bn (12.4%). In comparison, the rest of the G7 were up 5%. Without Brexit, we could safely assume that goods exports would have risen in line with the rest of the G7 and be around 17% higher than where they are. Now, that would have been a success story!

Looking at trade in goods for 2023, we see a very different worldview.

Leading the world in services?

The UK has a robust service industry and history of service exports. Most export growth mentioned came from financial services, insurance, travel, telecommunications and computer and information services. They have continued to do well since Brexit because, unlike trade in physical goods, most services are delivered digitally, for example, selling an insurance policy to someone or a company abroad. Services don’t have to navigate the same barriers that Brexit erected by adhering to strict customs rules with the products crossing a physical border. It makes sense they would be less affected by Brexit than other sectors.

Leading the world though? With $929bn worth of services sold internationally in 2022, the United States of America remained the world’s leader. The UK was second, by some distance, at $494bn. Still, considering the difference in the size of economies, this an impressive figure, albeit despite Brexit and Conservative policy.

£862bn in exports?

Not quite. The biggest issue with Badenoch’s figures of £862bn in the government’s report is that it has not been adjusted for inflation, which is standard for analysing long-term flows. The data she uses for the report from the Department of Business and Trade for the government document clearly states: “Unless otherwise stated, all figures are reported in nominal (current prices) and have not been adjusted for inflation. Accurate estimates (Chained Volume Measures) take into account inflation.”

Badenoch used the below graph to highlight the £862bn figure but after removing the effects of inflation, total annual UK exports of combined goods and services were £690.8bn in 2023, but hey, what’s a mere £172bn between friends?

In July 2023, the UK signed an agreement (not a trade deal) to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) – an Asia-Pacific trade bloc of 11 countries. This agreement is not yet in force for the UK. While it is good for cooperation and relations, the government has severely overegged this one, too.

Estimates show a mere £2bn boost to trade by 2040, less than 0.07% of UK GDP, mainly because the country already has FTAs with most CPTPP partners.

The UK has also signed digital trade agreements with Singapore and Ukraine; these are not considered ‘free trade agreements’.

To cut through the jargon – If we add up the impact of all the current FTAs and, for good measure, throw in the two big ones the Conservatives want with India and the USA, it would only give the UK a total boost of around 1% of GDP by 2040. This is a tiny amount compared with the already incurred loss of around 5% in GDP due to leaving the EU.

This video was taken before NZ deal came into force and this man is celebrating a false Brexit benefit.

We have always had nZ produce on our shelves, that Brexit opened up 🇬🇧market to countries which have lower standards than Britain is a betrayal of Tory manifesto pledge. Also… https://t.co/1qbLnB25DD

— Liz Webster (@LizWebsterSBF) September 3, 2023

It feels slightly contemptuous, assuming the public won’t know the difference, so why? Could it have something to do with the fact that last year Badenoch made a speech and came up with the plan called ‘Race to a Trillion’? £1tn in exports by 2030. So, if that’s her plan, which sounds better? £862bn, or £690bn. I think we have our answer.

73 trade deals agreed?

We often hear the government boasting of a new trade deal, but how good are they? Who benefits?

Of the 71 free trade agreements (FTAs) or trade deals the UK has signed since leaving the EU, 68 are rollover deals identical to those the UK had with those countries when it was inside the single market.

The UK has signed three new trade agreements since leaving the EU: with Australia, New Zealand and Japan. The National Farmers’ Union has strongly criticised the outcomes of the deals with New Zealand and Australia for their long-term effect on sectors like British beef and lamb, dairy and horticulture, saying “there appears to be little in those trade deals to benefit British farmers”. British farmers feel betrayed by their government and all for a cheap, quick Brexit success headline. Even New Zealand sees this.

Highest FDI (foreign direct investment) stock in Europe?

London remains a global financial powerhouse, and I’d love to break this down more. Still, after researching thoroughly, I found that the figure is too ambiguous and lacks details on what it supposedly represents. The only statistics I could find for the inward ‘stock’ of FDI were from 2022, and the Netherlands pipped the UK for the top place. If this applies solely to the UK’s FDI ‘stock market value’, and is for 2023, it could be correct.

Regarding FDI, France is first and has been for several years. In 2023, the UK was second, with Germany third. In 2022, the UK was third after France and Italy for inward FDI and second after Germany in outward FDI

80,000 jobs from 1600 FDI projects?

As noted above, France received the highest number of FDI projects at 1,194. The UK received 985 FDI projects in 2023, down 6% from 2022. Badenoch’s figures of 1600 FDI projects with 80,00 jobs created are amalgamated over a two-year period – certainly not a usual way of presenting figures.

The UK has done well overall on FDI investment, but the graph regarding general business investment shows a different story. Brexit has diminished confidence in the UK for businesses, making it much harder for them to plan ahead, which has led to this decline.

Faster growing economy than Germany, Italy and Japan?

In 2020, the UK was the worst-performing economy in the G7, seeing a 10.36% drop. The UK was the only country to drop double digits, which was one of the reasons its bounce back was also the highest in 2021, with an 8.68% lift. The UK also did well in 2022, when fuel prices and inflation were volatile. In 2023, however, only Germany had lower growth; this year, it looks the same. Looking at the graph below, the government is a little picky with its story by focusing on specific years only, not the overall picture or one available now.

Higher employment than in the USA, France or Italy?

This is a half-truth. In the case of France and Italy, yes, but not the USA. In 2023, the annual unemployment rate in the UK was 3.9%. The national unemployment rate in the USA in 2022 and 2023 was less than 3.6%. The UK is expected to see a rise in unemployment to 4.4% this year.

500 trade barriers removed?

Finally, here is a beautiful example of Tory doublespeak. They mean they have eliminated tariffs or allowed access to certain products to/from other marketplaces. Some examples given are:

• Selling new medicines and medical devices to South Africa.
• Cutting red tape for British pharma companies has also already led to £17mn of new business secured in Colombia.

UK-qualified professionals, including architects and auditors, will not have to fully requalify to work in Switzerland. Before Brexit, UK professional qualifications were mutually recognised across the EU member states. Since Brexit, they are not and have to be negotiated with individual countries, putting many UK professionals at a significant disadvantage to their European counterparts.
Rejoicing about removing trade barriers while completely ignoring that by leaving the EU, we erected trade barriers with our closest and largest trading bloc, adding mountains of paperwork, red tape and costs seems oxymoronic.

Small and medium-sized businesses, in particular, are struggling. In 2023, 45% of SMEs said it’s getting harder to trade in goods with the EU compared with 36% one year earlier, with a similar rise for SMEs selling services (43%, previously 34%). Large corporations and manufacturers can adapt and swallow these costs, but smaller businesses cannot, stifling growth and productivity.

Summary

Since Brexit, the UK’s ‘trade intensity’ (trade as a proportion of GDP) has fallen significantly, considerably more than other advanced economies. The UK economy has grown in some aspects, but not as much as it would have if we were still part of the European Union. Hence, any good news is despite Brexit, NOT because of Brexit. The graph below shows where the UK would have been without the Brexit effect.

In her words, Badenoch used these numbers to “confirm that the strategy the public voted for on 23 June 2016 is delivering. Leaving the European Union was a vote of confidence, and we are seeing the results”. For her to say so is profoundly flawed and categorically wrong.

With the cost-of-living crisis, crumbling services, rising costs and wage stagnation, the British public sees and feels a different reality to the sunlit uplands Badenoch and the Conservative party portray. “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” Luckily, the majority of the British people are not quite there yet.