‘Big Dog’ returns: is the nation ready for a Boris Johnson comeback?

‘Big Dog’ returns: is the nation ready for a Boris Johnson comeback?

Mar 14, 2024 | Bylines, News

As the nation anxiously awaits the announcement of a general election, hints of Boris Johnson’s return are causing a stir, writes Bremain Chair Sue Wilson MBE for Yorkshire Bylines.

In the run-up to the forthcoming general election, are we about to see Boris Johnson making a comeback? If reports in the Express are to be believed, Johnson is the Conservative Party’s secret weapon. Or at least, in the eyes of his supporters.

 

The suggestion is for Johnson to be “deployed” in red wall seats in the north of England and the Midlands, making speeches and appearing on leaflets in marginal constituencies. A government source said:

“Don’t expect Boris to appear on stage with Rishi – that’s not going to happen – but he is up for it. The relationship is in a fairly good place.”

Whilst there have been reports suggesting a thawing of relations between Johnson and Rishi Sunak, these have been disputed by one of Johnson’s most loyal supporters, Nadine Dorries. Not only is there no thawing of relations, she says, but there are “no plans to campaign”. She added that “Sunak had not spoken to Johnson for over a year”. The country should be so lucky!

The Johnson hokey-cokey

As for Johnson’s relationship with parliament, he has form for having a one-foot-in, one-foot-out position. Not only has he resigned twice as an MP, but even as PM he was often AWOL from Westminster and his prime-ministerial duties, even in times of crisis.

Johnson resigned as MP for Henley-on-Thames in June 2008, following his election as London mayor. His second resignation, as MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, came in June 2023, just four years after leading the Conservative Party to an 80-seat majority in parliament. This resignation came after a series of political scandals – in particular following the Partygate inquiry – described by Johnson as a “witch-hunt”. But in true Terminator style, at the time, he pledged “I’ll be back”.

This latest move in the Johnson hokey-cokey may not, however, just consist of his deployment in red wall constituencies. He may also be looking to return to his former safe seat in Henley and may have even higher ambitions.

Rowing back up the Thames

In May 2023, Johnson bought a £3.8mn, nine-bedroom mansion in Oxfordshire, close to his former Henley constituency. Ever since, there has been speculation he has his sights set on a return to his former seat – the current MP, John Howell, having announced his decision to step down just one month earlier. Now new rumours are circulating that Johnson and his supporters have a plan to return their hero to Henley, at the very least.

In a recent article in the Telegraph, a “secret plan for Boris to take back the Tory Party”, was revealed. The ‘Henley plot’ sees Johnson’s reinstatement as an MP as the first step towards his return as leader of the Conservative Party. Presumably – in the eyes of his delusional supporters, this would not only save the party from self-inflicted destruction but see Johnson back as PM as well.

Losing the plot

The ‘bring back Boris’ proposition may have seemed like a good one on paper, but the plot has hit a snag. That snag comes in the shape of Caroline Newton, recently selected by the party to stand in the Henley constituency. Johnson’s plotters may have assumed that she would simply step aside to make way for the ‘Big Dog’, but Newton was having none of it.

When asked on LBC whether she would consider making way for Johnson, Newton said, “Absolutely not”. She added that “the idea that a woman should step aside for a man to take a job that he just fancies is absurd. And it’s certainly not something I’m going to do”. Newton also pointed out that she has been a candidate representing the local communities, as a councillor, for a decade and if asked, would say “thank you for the thought, but no thank you”.

According to Johnson, the qualities needed to be a good MP for Henley are a willingness to listen and patience – neither of which anyone who has ever met him, watched him or listened to him would suggest he possesses. He described the people of Henley as “the nicest, kindest, most wonderful and indeed eccentric people in Britain”. As a newly re-registered overseas voter in the Henley constituency, I’ll take that – and most everything Johnson has to say – with a very large bucket of salt.

Above all, said Johnson, “the quality you need to represent the people of Henley is to be a Conservative”. But what, exactly, does being “a Conservative” even mean anymore? Not what it once did, that’s for sure, and certainly not what the electorate regard as a vote-winner, whether you live in Henley or Halifax.

Still, not to worry, Boris. I’m sure the Reform UK Party would welcome you with open arms, and you’d feel right at home. Perhaps they’ll even let you run in Henley. You have, after all, done untold damage to the Conservative Party, and the country, already. So why not break the habit of a lifetime and finish what you started?

Bremainers Ask…… Prof. Chris Grey

Bremainers Ask…… Prof. Chris Grey

Feb 29, 2024 | Bremainers Ask, News

Chris Grey is Emeritus Professor of Business and Management Studies at Royal Holloway, University of London. He previously held professorships at Warwick and Cambridge Universities. Since 2016 he has written the Brexit & Beyond Blog, and he is the author of Brexit Unfolded. How no one got what they wanted (and why they were never going to). His work on Brexit has been widely cited in the media and by governmental bodies, and he has given expert evidence to the Scottish Parliament on the Brexit trade negotiations

Ruth Woodhouse : Why is it that the Tories will not acknowledge the damage caused by Brexit and that it has been a failure? Is it really just a case of not losing face? Similarly, why will Labour not acknowledge the reality?

For Tories (assuming we are talking about MPs), I think there are some diehards who genuinely still think it was the right thing to do and, to the extent they see its problems, genuinely believe they are because it wasn’t done properly. Others, I’m sure, who once thought it was a good idea, secretly realise what a mistake they have made. Still others never supported it. But, apart from any psychological barriers to admitting what a failure it has been, there are huge political pressures not to. The Conservative Party, and especially its local membership organisations, is very different even to what it was in 2016. Criticising Brexit would be the death knell of their careers now: it would be the equivalent of a Labour MP saying the NHS should be abolished. As regards Labour and Brexit, I’ll fold that question in with Steve Wilson’s, below.

 

Steve Wilson : The Labour Party insists it can make Brexit work. Is that really possible and do you think they will shift their position once in power?

Making Brexit work is simply a slogan to signal that Labour accepts it isn’t going to be reversed and there will not be another referendum, along with a commitment to try to improve the Johnson deal. Is that possible (within Labour’s constraints on the single market, etc.)? Yes, in marginal, though not trivial, ways. In a general way, a more harmonious and trusting relationship is possible. That may sound vague, but it’s important. Specifically, a dynamic alignment deal on sanitary and phytosanitary standards (SPS) is possible, and, if done, that would also set a precedent for cooperation that entailed an ECJ role, most obviously as regards security, but also possibly things like linking the EU and UK chemicals regulation (REACH) and carbon import (CBAM) regimes. A mobility deal of some sort could be done, and the UK might participate in Erasmus. There are good reasons to think that the EU would agree on SPS and security, while its agreement on mobility, Erasmus, REACH and CBAM, though less clear, looks possible. Is this Labour facing the reality of Brexit? Well, yes, to the extent that it is the most that it believes is realistic in terms of both domestic and EU politics. Does it repair the damage of Brexit? No, not by a long way.

What, if anything, could Rejoin campaigners do differently to improve their chances of success?

A while back, I did a list of Dos and Don’ts on my blog. This is a heavily edited version (see here for the full thing):

DO:

Keep going … it is going to be a long haul.
Keep pointing to the failures of Brexit. That may be negative, and, ultimately, the campaign case for rejoining needs to be positive, but we are not in that campaign yet.
Be prepared for support for rejoin and opposition to Brexit to fluctuate in the opinion polls.
React positively to leave voters who openly express regret.
Avoid getting tangled in issues about whether rejoining means joining the Euro, or Schengen, or what it would mean for budget contributions.
Configure the issue as ‘joining’ rather than ‘rejoining’: it’s about the future, not resurrecting the past. Both the UK and the EU will be different.

 

DON’T:

Keep banging on about the 2016 Referendum having ‘only been advisory’ or how ‘only 37% of the electorate voted to leave’.
Assume that individual EU politicians saying that the UK is welcome back any time it is ready is the same as that being the position of the EU or its members.
Dismiss any progress short of rejoining as a waste of time.

 

Anon : Do you think the result of the forthcoming election will be as bad for the Tories as generally predicted, or could they claw their way back into power?

Predictions are a mug’s game … so here goes! I think it will be closer than the current opinion polls suggest but, barring something big and unexpected, I think they will lose, simply because there is a general mood, among those who are not much interested in politics as well as those who are, that their time is up. That can be analysed in all kinds of sophisticated ways but, sometimes, politics really is as simple as that indefinable but tangible mood. Labour’s task in government is to convert that into something which becomes seen as an ideological sea-change – I say ‘becomes’, because it’s really only in retrospect that those judgements get made. That’s why, in and of itself, Labour’s current caution doesn’t tell us anything either way about whether it is going to oversee such a sea-change.

 

 

Susan Scarrott : With all the various factions and continual infighting, are the Tories finished?

It would be far too bold to say that they are finished but, assuming they lose the election, it seems all but inevitable that they will lurch to the populist right and pull themselves apart with battles over purity and true belief. How long that will go on for is hard to say – I suspect at least until they have lost another general election, maybe two. But whether they do that also depends on how a Labour government performs.

Lisa Burton : Your Brexit Blog ‘Brexit and Beyond’ is highly valued by many. Did you imagine it would turn into the immense piece of work it has become, and how long do you intend on keeping it going?

Thanks for your kind words. No, I never expected it to become what it has. I really only started it, in September 2016, for a kind of ‘personal therapy’, and at first it had very few readers. Then, I started using Twitter to publicise it – that was February 2017 – and it suddenly got picked up, by lucky chance, by a few high-profile people. Very quickly the readership expanded to many tens of thousands a week, including just about every journalist covering Brexit around the world, and politicians from every party in the UK (including several prominent Brexiters) and many in the EU, plus many in the EU’s negotiating team, diplomats, thinktank people, etc. 

Its popularity has slightly declined in the last couple of years, but not by much. All that is good, but it has put pressure on me to keep writing it regularly, and to a decent standard. I’m well aware that its profile means that if I make, say, some serious error of fact, I could get pounced on. Anyway, I’m proud of it, and especially of the fact that many people say it will become a resource for historians. I don’t know if that’s true, but it is true there is nothing quite like it as a contemporaneous record of what has happened. I’m not sure how long I’ll keep going, but I’ve no immediate plans to stop. It has become a labour of love!

 

Anon : The Tories have made so many assaults on British democracy and have avoided transparency. Is there a particular assault on British values that stands out for you?

So many to choose from, as you say. I suppose the Prorogation was the most direct assault on democracy, but at least it was ruled unlawful. The most grotesque thing, to me, was the Mail’s ‘Enemies of the People’ headline. It was disgusting and totalitarian in its formulation and implication. OK, that was done by a newspaper, not the Tory Party, but it should have been unequivocally condemned by every single Government minister including the then PM Theresa May. In fact, shortly afterwards, its author (who also, reportedly, wrote the actual headline) was appointed by May as her official spokesperson.

Next month

Formerly the Chief Executive of the Liberal Democrat Party, Lord Rennard was elevated to the House of Lords in 1999. He was Director of Campaigns and Elections for the Liberal Democrats from 1989 to 2003 and Chief Executive of the Party from 2003 to 2009. If you wish to submit a question for consideration, please email us at enquiries@bremaininspain.com no later than Saturday 9 March.

New Frontex deal: closing the gap with the EU

New Frontex deal: closing the gap with the EU

Feb 24, 2024 | Bylines, News

The new Frontex deal signals that the UK is continuing cooperative relations with its neighbours – this can only work in both parties’ favour, writes Bremain Chair Sue Wilson MBE for Yorkshire Bylines. 

A new Frontex border deal aimed at reducing the number of small boat Channel crossings has been agreed between the UK and the EU. With both the opposition and the government now actively seeking closer ties and better cooperation with Europe on a number of issues, has Britain taken its first steps towards rejoining the EU?

The new Frontex deal

The new deal will see UK’s Border Force cooperating more closely with European border agency, Frontex, on matters of training, intelligence and the implementation of new operations and technology. The deal was signed on Friday in London by European Home Affairs Commissioner, Ylva Johansson and Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly.

Cleverly described the “landmark working arrangement” as “another crucial step in tackling illegal migration, securing our borders and stopping the boats”. The foreign secretary also said it was part of the government’s plan to “break the model of the smuggling gangs”. He admitted that people smuggling was one of a number of “global challenges that require shared solutions and ambitions”. Well, quite – the list of issues requiring better cooperation with our neighbours is a long one.

 

Labour want to reset relations

Despite his insistence that Labour can make Brexit work, Keir Starmer has been keen to improve relations with Brussels. It would appear that the EU are also keen to work with a new Labour government and are set to offer a reset of post-Brexit relations if Starmer wins the general election.

A review of the existing UK/EU trade and cooperation agreement (TCA) is scheduled for 2026, presenting an opportunity for a closer trading partnership. Although any new arrangement would exclude rejoining the single market or customs union – both ruled out by Starmer – a closer deal could help businesses to import and export food and cars. Although Brussels have insisted that the review of the TCA will only be a technical process designed to ensure the agreement is working properly, there appears to be some room for manoeuvre.

A senior EU diplomat described the 2026 TCA review as “a big opportunity for Starmer, potentially”. He added that if there is “a political will to make real changes to the relationship then that will be extremely significant”. Another EU source suggested that Labour were looking at ways “it can get closer rather than further away from Europe”.

Shadow Cabinet Office Minister, Nick Thomas-Symonds said:

“An incoming Labour government will reset relations with key European allies. The wider trade and co-operation agreement review could provide an opportunity to address some of the shortcomings in the Conservatives’ deal.”

A promising start, but will it be enough?

Closing the gap

The latest deal with the EU is not the first time since Brexit that the government has sought improved cooperation with our European neighbours. Others include an agreement last year with the French government to boost British/French law-enforcement cooperation. Nor is it the first time the EU and UK have discussed working more closely together to solve the small boats crisis – PM Rishi Sunak met with European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen in this regard last May.

A big move towards closer ties with Europe came last year when the UK agreed to rejoin the Horizon Europe programme – the EU’s key funding programme for research and development, with a budget of €95.5bn euros. Having left the scheme in 2021 thanks to Brexit, the UK will now contribute €2.43bn euros a year to the scheme, plus an additional €154mn euros for membership of the Copernicus earth observation programme.

Scientists and researchers will be the main beneficiaries in the case of Horizon Europe. Other industries, such as car and food manufacturers, must wait and hope that future discussions will prove as fruitful for them. Meanwhile, calls for action for other sectors like the music industry, and demands for a UK return to the Erasmus education programme, are gathering momentum.

In reality, it’s difficult to think of any UK industry that wouldn’t benefit from closer European ties, less bureaucracy and a more cooperative approach. Especially, perhaps, in the event of a Trump return in the US. But, is each new deal, each new arrangement, a step closer towards Europe? In the minds of our politicians, probably not – at least not for now.

New government, new attitude?

The incoming government will be faced with a myriad of issues, conflicting priorities and a mountain of debt. A new attitude towards Europe will be both desirable and welcomed by UK businesses, who according to Labour, want “a government that won’t try and pick fights”. No doubt that’s true, but surely businesses also want a strong economy, a removal of trade barriers, and the ability to hire European workers. They want to be part of a prosperous, outward-looking country with European values, and tinkering around the edges – welcome as that is – will never be enough to completely turn around the country’s fortunes.

Rejoining the EU was never going to be an easy or speedy prospect, and one that the government wish to avoid at all costs. The Conservatives have done all they can – though not as much as they would have hoped – to distance the UK from the EU and make it more difficult to reverse Brexit. But they have failed. They have lost business and public support, caused untold economic damage, and been caught out in their Brexit lies.

In a global world, the UK cannot go it alone – a fact that even our isolationist government is having to accept. Step by step, we are closing the gap between London and Brussels, rebuilding damaged bridges and trust. It’s a journey that will require courage, determination and a fresh perspective. Let’s hope our new government are intrepid travellers with EU passports!

‘Stop! Think Fraud’ – perhaps the government should take its own advice

‘Stop! Think Fraud’ – perhaps the government should take its own advice

Feb 14, 2024 | Bylines, News

The government has gained another ‘X’ community note for its ‘Stop! Think Fraud’ campaign – if only it had been more careful itself, writes Bremain Chair Sue Wilson MBE for Yorkshire Bylines. 

The Home Office has launched a campaign with the slogan ‘Stop! Think Fraud’ aimed at helping the public “spot fraud” and protect themselves from its “devastating impacts”. According to the government website, the campaign is backed by “leading counter fraud experts uniting under one voice to provide consistent, clear and robust advice”.

On the one hand, it’s comforting to hear that our government is prepared to listen to experts once more. But it rather raises the question, where were these experts when questions were being asked of government ministers regarding questionable PPE contracts?

 

The ‘Stop! Think Fraud’ campaign

Of all recorded crimes committed in England and Wales, fraud accounts for 40% of the total, with an estimated 3.2 million offences each year, according to government statistics. The cost of that fraud is estimated at £6.8bn in England and Wales alone. While that’s not an insignificant figure, and deserves some government attention, it’s small fry compared to the £100bn hit to UK exports revealed in the latest analysis of Brexit damage. But don’t hold your breath waiting for a government campaign designed at fixing that problem.

The government anticipates that its anti-fraud campaign “will be seen by 95% of adults in the UK” over the coming weeks thanks to blanket coverage on radio, TV, social media and billboards. Home Secretary James Cleverly said the “bold” fraud strategy will continue to “deliver for the British people”. A bold, new strategy? Perhaps. A tired old idiom? Most definitely.

Security Minister Tom Tugendhat added, “This new campaign will share the details we all need to defend ourselves and our friends”. Perhaps, in some future anti-crime campaign, he’ll be suggesting a similar approach to defending ourselves against muggers or burglars. Sounds, to me, rather like ‘you’re on your own!’

Fraud in the name of Covid

In Cleverly’s video, he claims fraud has been cut by 13% in England and Wales over the last year. Within 24 hours, that claim had already been challenged on social media as “misleading”, as the police had reported a 15% increase in fraud.  Not only that, but the rate of fraud has increased by 128% when compared with September 2013.

As for the government themselves, perhaps they could also focus on issues much closer to home, such as the long-running National Crime Agency investigation into allegations of fraud and bribery faced by Conservative peer Michelle Mone and her husband.

The prime minister himself has also been under scrutiny in regard to his actions during the pandemic. In June 2023, a report revealed that government losses to fraud had quadrupled, under the then chancellor Rishi Sunak, from £5.5bn to £21bn, according to the Commons Public Accounts Committee.

HM Revenue and Customs – the direct responsibility of Sunak – suffered enormously due to this rise in fraud, thanks to £97bn being spent on the pandemic furlough scheme, the bounce back loan scheme and the disastrous ‘Eat out to Help Out’ scheme. While some efforts have been made to recover the £4.9bn lost to fraud and error from the bounce back loan scheme alone, only limited amounts have been recovered to date. Judging by recent events, Sunak’s judgment has not improved with advancement. Neither has his knowledge of balancing the books, it would seem.

Last year, a National Audit Office report revealed the staggering increase – almost fourfold – in public money being lost to fraud since the beginning of the pandemic – money that is unlikely to ever be fully recovered. Not only is that money long gone, but the government is keeping very quiet on the subject. While the wrongdoings of some government colleagues seemingly go unpunished, the general public are facing ever tougher sentences for much lesser crimes.

“Nobody is immune from fraud”, the government campaign tells us. Some in high places are, it would seem, a little more immune than others.

Stop! Think Fraud

In Cleverly’s promotional video he promises to “not let fraudsters in”, encourages us to “protect ourselves” and advises us to “take a minute to stop and think fraud”. Sound advice! Let’s make sure to repeat it often in the run-up to the election.

Liz Truss and her Popular Conservatives are just another populist con

Liz Truss and her Popular Conservatives are just another populist con

Feb 13, 2024 | Bylines, News

The launch of the splinter group the Popular Conservatives last week was met with derision. But their mission is both tired and dangerous. Bremain Vice Chair Lisa Burton writes for Bylines Cymru.

What a feast of delusion and desperation we witnessed at the launch of yet another Conservative splinter group last week. The Popular Conservatives, or PopCon, is another attempt by people formerly known as Conservatives to force their America-adapted, far-right populist, totalitarian ideas on the country, this time under the banner of ‘popular Conservatism’. There’s nothing popular or conservative about them.

The record holder for the shortest premiership in UK history was the star of the show. Liz Truss arrived to rapturous applause. Her fiscal policies and uncosted tax cuts almost crashed our economy, forcing the Bank of England to take emergency measures to save pensions. She cost the country billions and caused interest rate rises that have so far cost homeowners over £300bn in higher mortgage payments.

Yet Truss reaps rich rewards and is invited to speak at events as if she’s an economics guru. It would be unthinkable at any other time, but these are no ordinary times. Failing spectacularly seems to be the Conservative brand now. And it is failing our country.

 

The true secret Conservatives

Truss said “Britain is full of secret Conservatives – people who agree with us but don’t want to admit it.” The Conservative Foundation website states that the “Conservative Party has always stood for personal liberty, democracy, and the rule of law.” But your personal liberty to stand up for the environment, LGBTQ+ rights, human rights, international law, and the right to asylum doesn’t exist in their vision of Britain. Democracy and the rule of law are seen as nothing but irritants holding Conservatives back by the capacity to hold them to account.

You don’t have to look hard for evidence that today’s Conservative Party is nothing like it was. Look at the crackdown on the fundamental right to protest through the Public Order Bill, which has been criticised globally. Witness their attacks on the independence of the Electoral Commission, which experts warn is part of an alarming trend of watering down and undermining trust in British democracy.

See also voter gerrymandering, or attacks on British institutions, lawyers, civil servants, celebrities, ‘experts’, unions, and our world-renowned judiciary. And, of course, breaking international law over the doomed Rwanda policy. Such actions are blatantly totalitarian in nature and have nothing to do with ‘popular conservatism’.

When Truss refers to “secret conservatives”, she means those who support these attacks on our institutions. Those who think foreigners, minorities, the LGBTQ+ community, and anyone ‘different’ (from them) should be tolerated only as long as they stay in their box and don’t make a fuss. She appeals to the worst impulses in us.

Modern McCarthyism

You don’t need to be a racist, bigot, or xenophobe, though all would find a natural home here. Sadly, many who fall for this narrative have been made to feel angry or fearful. They feel they and their communities have been left behind and that politicians put others in society before them. This part, at least, is genuine: those who attended PopCon do only care about a tiny section of society. The con is making the masses believe it’s them, when all the evidence suggests they only care about themselves and those at the top of the food chain.

They don’t admit they are socialists or communists anymore. It’s all about taking power away from people and families and giving power to the state. The problem is the Conservatives had tried to appease these people. We have tried to triangulate. For years and years and years – it goes back two decades – Conservatives have not taken on the leftwing extremists.

Liz Truss

In the late 1940s and throughout the 1950s, Senator Joseph McCarthy ran a campaign of political repression and persecution of leftwing people, spreading fear and hysteria regarding alleged communist and Soviet influence on American institutions. Lives and reputations were ruined, and people were wrongly imprisoned. It was a dangerous and shameful era with enduring repercussions, and is often cited as an example of how unfounded fears can compromise or destroy civil liberties.

The primary targets for persecution were government employees, prominent figures in the entertainment industry, academics, leftwing politicians, and labour union activists. Sound familiar?

The true net zero zealots

In addition to Truss’ comments above, we’ve heard other ‘Conservatives’ talk of the “blob”, the “wokerati”, “metropolitan elites”. It’s nothing new, just different terminology. Such a shame we human beings forget our history, and that our nature leaves us open to manipulation by ‘fear of the other’ or things we don’t understand. It’s the root cause of many of the world’s ills. Just think how many governments currently use ‘others’ to create a climate of fear.

Populists say they represent the people, the will of the people, the common folk, or the silent majority. “Hardworking families”. This is the biggest and most necessary con of all. They themselves are the elites they loudly rally against.

They don’t, as they claim, want to row back on net zero to save households money. The fossil fuels industry made average profits of $2.8bn per day over the last 50 years. Of course those companies want that to continue. They feed some of those billions-per-day into ‘think tanks’, lobbyists, and political donations to ensure it. They can afford to.

It’s well documented that the organiser and some attendees of PopCon have links to climate change denial organisations and the fossil fuels industry. Is it any wonder they hosted politicians who attacked net zero policies, and handed out leaflets calling for an end to “net zero zealotry”?

Holding Britain back

The wholesale price of electricity is set under the ‘marginal cost pricing system’ by the most expensive method needed to meet demand (usually burning gas). If your renewable unit of energy was 50% of the cost of a unit produced by gas, you’d still pay the gas price unit. It’s not a ‘green tax’ that’s keeping your energy prices high.

Renewables are cheaper; the government admits this, and there is ample evidence. Yet anti-net zero radicals would apparently prefer that the country be held to ransom by authoritarian regimes like Russia and Saudi Arabia. And to be vulnerable to volatile supply chains and prices, and the world events adding to that volatility.

A green industrial revolution is underway and is not going anywhere. It will provide highly skilled and secure jobs, boost the country’s economy, and protect the planet. Countries are racing to take advantage of and consolidate the new technologies required. Yet Truss, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and their ilk want the UK to sit back and allow other countries to win this race; to hold Britain back. Why, and to whose benefit? Certainly not for that of this country or its citizens!

Rees-Mogg attacks the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), judges, and the “international elite”. To stop your country falling to the far right, fascism, or totalitarianism, constitutional checks and balances including domestic and international law protect the people and the nation. This is why today’s ‘Conservatives’ make such attacks.

A true Conservative would be aghast, but these are far right populists. Their very behaviour establishes that. Law and its institutions hold them back from creating a society in which total control and power lie in the hands of the few to benefit the few.

 

Populist Conservatives: a populist con

They identify an enemy, always a minority – refugees, asylum seekers, trans people, or, these days, climate change protesters – building anger and fear around such groups, which they say are dangerous to society, ‘the family’, and the country. They portray judges as enemies, and tell the public they can’t protect them because unreasonable laws prevent it and lawyers are ‘on the left’. It’s absurd, of course. The law can only be applied as it’s written, and lawyers are duty-bound to be unbiased.

A globally trading democracy can’t function as such if not bound by international agreements and laws, with a robust domestic legal system. Unless you want to be like North Korea, and maybe Rees-Mogg does?

If you think leaving the ECHR is a good idea, or want to abandon human rights because you think it’ll only affect asylum seekers, ask yourself: would Popular Conservatives stop there? Which rights are you willing to give up so a few people can be sent to Rwanda unlawfully?

Richard Murphy sums up Truss and the Popular Conservatives perfectly in his blog, Funding the Future. “This is, then, an agenda that explicitly permits the powerful with a grudge to abuse anyone they wish with impunity. And anything that gets in the way, like democratic government and the rule of law, must be vilified or abolished.”

Please, don’t help make them popular, or let them con you into believing otherwise.

Bremainers Ask Revisited – Hopes and Fears for 2024

Bremainers Ask Revisited – Hopes and Fears for 2024

Jan 31, 2024 | Bremainers Ask, News

Gina Miller: I fear the damage Brexit delusion is doing to our country, but election year brings real hope

Since the United Kingdom left the European Union at the start of this decade, the inevitable cost and disruption that comes with Brexit reality and the UK being a third country are coming home to roost, post-pandemic.

Full border checks on EU imports have been delayed five times – but come the end of this month, Brexit Britain must face the music. New border controls on animal and plant products have been dressed up by Ministers as a new-and-improved “Border Trade Operating Model”. Yet, according to Sky News, the changes will cost businesses £330m a year, on top of considerable additional costs for energy, staff, overheads and supplies during 2023.

Nearly half of SMEs are saying they’re spending 20-60% more than in 2022. Additionally, the Energy Bill Discount Scheme is set to end in March 2024, which will only make things worse with even higher bills, as the energy crisis is set to continue due to global uncertainty. These additional costs will inevitably be reflected in shopping baskets.

This is my first fear for 2024 – that a Britain already struggling with a prolonged and bitter cost of living crisis will be uniquely subject to more hardship as the Brexit damage deepens.

The Red Sea crisis has thrown international shipping into havoc, resulting in us experiencing the greatest challenge to global supply chains since the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2021 disruption of the Suez Canal. The prices charged for containers transporting an estimated 12% of global trade, worth more than $1tn (£790bn), via longer routes will have a huge knock-on effect on many goods. Companies as diverse as Tesla, Electrolux, IKEA, and Volvo are all ringing alarm bells – many are already halting production.

Add in the severe drought affecting the Panama Canal, the war in Ukraine, curtailed grain shipments via the Black Sea, and more frequent extreme weather, and I, like many, am left in fear of the impact on global supply chains.

The urgency to adapt and reroute not only comes with serious financial consequences – but also dramatic environmental impacts. Increases in shipping traffic, leading to severe changes in underwater noise, will affect fish stocks and marine mammals. Before the Red Sea crisis, if shipping was a country, it would be the sixth largest greenhouse gas emitter worldwide. Now, ships coming from Asia to Europe and the UK are being rerouted around the southern tip of Africa, emitting more carbon dioxide. Emissions will also be increased as manufacturers turn to more air freight.

The EY ITEM Club, a leading UK economic forecasting group, now says there is a “good chance” that the UK slipped into a technical recession at the end of 2023 – meaning we had two negative quarters in a row. While the reality of this will be confirmed to be true, or not, in February when the official GDP data is posted – it comes as no surprise.

In these circumstances, our country can no longer afford the delusion and conceit that there are Brexit benefits. The evidence that Brexit is costing the UK around £100 billion a year due to our economy being 4% smaller than it would have been following pre-Brexit trends is undeniable. UK business investment is growing 19% more slowly than the G7 average, with the negative impacts of Brexit predicted to gradually escalate, reaching some 5-6% of GDP, or about £2,300 per capita by 2035.

Another fear is that people blame the entire political system for the crisis they are experiencing. That mistrust and apathy leads to voters either staying at home or being attracted by populist propaganda, as we’re seeing with the Reform Party.

I set up the True & Fair Party to tell it as it is on Brexit, on political reform and the necessity of a health and happiness economy centred on wellbeing. To bridge the growing division permeating through our conversations, communities, and country.

The increased support we are getting, particularly in our top target constituency of Epsom and Ewell, is giving me hope for 2024.

Covid has muddied the waters in terms of damage to the UK, but the pandemic also delayed the harm of leaving the union. And there is no denying real harm is being done to almost every sector. The Britain that gifted Boris Johnson a thumping majority in 2019 is no longer the Britain we live in. The wave of post-Brexit delusion he rode is crashing on the rocks of reality.

Many people now know they were sold a pup – election day will be judgement day. With the polls consistently at between 58%-63% to rejoin the European Union (close to 70% if you strip out the over 65s), I am hopeful that the next election will result in a Government that recognises that Britain’s place is back inside the EU.

The Liberal Democrats and large parts of the Labour Party are alive to this reality. They know it in their hearts, but they dare not speak their mind. The True & Fair Party is here to give a voice to voiceless voters who say it’s time to end the pretence and start on the road to rejoin.

Even one True & Fair seat in Parliament after the next election would strike an enormous blow against Brexit and keep the flame for rejoining well and truly alive.

Achieving that is my overriding hope for 2024. If you want Britain back around the top table in Europe, join with me to make it happen.

 

Prof. Juliet Lodge: My hopes for 2024

Peace. Gentleness. Fairness. Equity. Tolerance. An end to poverty and tyranny. Political honesty. Governments respecting and serving citizens and upholding international law.

Looking just at the UK, evidence that Tory Brexit has busted Britain inundates us daily. I hope that we recall the relative calm of life pre-2016 and recognise that we neither have to continue to expect and accept misgovernment, nor shrug off emerging evidence of tawdry mismanagement, complacent, socially uncaring, lazy, ignorant and arrant incompetence, ministerial lies and depraved bungocracy. We did better then and we can do better in 2024.

My hopes for 2024 include us learning from and working with our EU partners, contributing to democratic renewal domestically and building democratic resilience in the reforming EU. We share the EU’s hopes and investment in combating disinformation, and commitment to frustrate foreign interference and corrupt players gaming democracy with malign intent.

I hope that critical reflection can triumph over the fake certainties implied by binary black or white options, and the lure of automated, inevitably biased decisions. 2024 must start the process to end the deprivation imposed by limiting choice, whether by biased humans or by big online platforms. Choice must be shared and cherished so we can try to be innovative in trying to realise a better world, not least for our younger generations and children. Wouldn’t we welcome the EU Childrens’ Participation Platform and efforts to ensure equality for all, no matter how challenging?

Only vandals would drag us out of the ECHR, so I hope that 2024 will see the UK electing a Government of integrity, willing to face the need to be a sane, safe, trustable, tolerant, fair, empathetic, constructive, ethical and forward-looking player on the world stage. One committed to realising the best for ordinary people. One informed enough to understand that kindness, commitment to upholding human rights, sustaining the rights we had in the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights and boosting a welfare state, is not weakness but a sign of a mature society.

I hope that the UK, like the EU, will act on the need for constitutional change and reform; that a UK Government will have the vision to include proportional representation in its aspirations for a fair society; that it will show understanding and realism over Northern Ireland; and that it will be courageous and bold enough to insist on the swift restoration of rights scammed from us all, unions, women and children since Brexit.

I want the deceit over the UK’s need to adhere to high EU standards, and to be in the customs union and the single market to end and be replaced by openness over why mutual removal of physical, technical and virtual borders between the UK and EU were realised in the first place: we all benefit from the four freedoms of movement of goods, services, capital and people. The disingenuous stupidity of the Conservatives’ divisive hostile environment perverts what the UK is and can again be.

People in the EU value EU citizenship and are more aware of its benefits, as are we, as the loss of it hits home, harming the lives of those with family across the EU and our ability to travel around Europe unencumbered by border delays. I hope 2024 will see the restoration of mutual freedom of movement between the EU and UK for families, and for anyone wanting to enjoy the advantages of ErasmusPlus. There is much we could learn from the EU to become more equal and inclusive. There is much we could choose to do together to combat those exploiting immigration from countries outside the EU.

There is also a great deal we could learn from the EU on AI and valuing and protecting individual rights, privacy, autonomy and integrity. We cannot afford morally, let alone economically, to deviate from EU standards, norms and values.

Like so many of us across Europe, I hope for open, humane, climate-protecting Governments of conscience, committed to facilitating public participation, public understanding of how societies work, and using public money for the public good and community.

A general election in the UK before the Euro-elections to the European Parliament in June would be welcome.

I hope 2024 brings and entrenches ethical Government by design and default in the UK and EU as the norm not the exception.

 

Peter Corr: My biggest hope for 2024, year of elections, is that my fears don’t actually come true.

Watching progress towards Rejoin has been satisfying, although also frustrating. Seeing the polling numbers slowly but surely increase for Rejoin, while simultaneously, politicians going backwards. Such as Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats joining Starmer in pretending Brexit can work, or that people aren’t talking about Brexit anymore, while all the things he claims they are talking about are directly caused by or made worse by Brexit. I want to see this Government gone, but it’s really hard to consider supporting other politicians who are also clearly lying to our faces to get into power.

The Tories have gone full batshit, to paraphrase a certain MP. Or have they? I believe the Rwanda farce has one goal and that is to force ‘leaving the ECHR’ onto the agenda. They could even put it in their manifesto, and make the whole election about it. Like a crap sequel to the Brexit election of 2019. Would enough of the country fall for that? I don’t think so, but I also never believed we’d vote for Brexit, so maybe I’m not the best judge. One of my biggest fears is definitely the thought that the crazy policies this lot have been coming out with lately could be given an actual mandate.

Over in the land of guns, it seems more and more likely by the day that Trump will win the election. What will that mean for the war happening in Europe right now? The EU should hurry up and fast-track Ukraine’s membership before then if that’s possible. As a side note, if it is possible, I don’t see why the UK rejoining can’t also be fast-tracked. Just a thought. I think Trump winning would have serious implications for NATO, Ukraine, Palestine and, well, the whole world. Another of my biggest fears.

With World War III being openly discussed by military experts and the media, along with even conscription – I think this should be a fear for all of us. Would I be comfortable, as a veteran myself, seeing either of my children being conscripted into the forces? Absolutely not. War is never the answer. But if it were not a choice, I would genuinely rather see them be conscripted into an EU Army than the British Army led by our own lying politicians. And that includes a government led by Starmer.

So, with dark news wherever you turn, it’s more important than ever to positively campaign for our hopes in 2024. That’s what we’ll be doing at National Rejoin March, which continues to grow and gain traction, both online and offline. It’s giving people hope and giving me hope. The team and everyone I meet along the journey helps me forget the Ed Daveys, the Sunaks and the Trumps of the world. My biggest hope of 2024, apart from for my fears not coming true, is that our collective hope will begin to translate into action by our politicians.

n the February newsletter we will be featuring Prof. Chris Grey who is Emeritus Professor of Business and Management Studies at Royal Holloway, University of London. Since 2016 Chris has been writing the Brexit & Beyond Blog, and he is the author of Brexit Unfolded.

If you would like to submit any questions for Chris for consideration, please email them to enquiries@bremaininspain.com no later than Wednesday 7 February.